The dust has barely settled from the 2025 midterm elections, yet the political landscape already feels dramatically altered. In a stunning twist, voters defied expectations,leaving analysts, candidates, and even the electorate itself stunned.

What happened? What was expected to be a routine midterm contest instead erupted into a dramatic display of voter power and unpredictability, with an almost record-breaking turnout, a tidal wave of Gen Z and Millennial participation, and results that defied nearly every pre-election survey. The outcome disrupted traditional power structures, demonstrating that change was not only possible but also inevitable. The nation now finds itself at a crossroads, reminded once again that in Philippine politics, the only constant is surprise.

Most pre-election surveys painted a picture of dominance by administration-backed candidates, but the actual vote count told a different story. The influence of the Iglesia ni Cristo endorsements once again proved to be a significant factor in the results, and the looming impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte further complicated the stakes.

One of the most defining aspects of the 2025 elections was the unprecedented voter turnout. Almost 82 percent of the nearly 69 million registered voters showed up at the polling stations. One of the most defining aspects of the 2025 elections was the unprecedented voter turnout. Analysts, including the newly minted ones, attribute this surge to heightened political awareness, aggressive voter education campaigns, and the public’s desire to influence the country’s direction amid concerns about economic and governance issues.

Higher voter turnout often leads to unpredictable results, as it brings in voices that may not have been accounted for in traditional polling methods. This election was no exception—many candidates who were projected to win comfortably found themselves struggling, while others who were considered underdogs secured surprising victories.

Social media has undoubtedly made the recent election a very interesting one, highlighting both legitimate campaigns and misinformation. Online discourse played a significant role in shaping voter sentiment, often contradicting traditional polling data.

A major factor in the election’s unexpected results was the high turnout of Gen Z and Millennial voters. These younger demographics, many of whom were voting for the first or second time, played a decisive role in shaping the national and local races. Unlike older generations, younger voters tend to be more engaged on social media, more critical of traditional political structures, and more inclined to support candidates based on issues rather than personalities. Their participation contributed to the unexpected decent performance of progressive candidates, some of whom had been trailing in pre-election surveys but gained momentum through grassroots campaigns and digital mobilization efforts.

Pre-election surveys had predicted mainly a strong showing for administration-backed candidates. However, the results showed that the votes brought in by young voters completely changed the outcome. Their choices were evident in most school-based surveys, which the major polling firms may have overlooked. The election results may serve as a wake-up call for political analysts, demonstrating that traditional polling methods may no longer be as reliable in an era of digital engagement and evolving voter behavior.

The Iglesia ni Cristo, known for its bloc voting practice, once again played a pivotal role in the elections. The religious group’s endorsements significantly boosted the chances of certain candidates, especially those allied to the Dutertes, particularly in the Senate race. Historically, INC endorsements have been a game-changer. This election was no different—several candidates who were previously struggling in surveys saw a surge in votes after receiving the backing of the religious group.

As mentioned in my column last week, perhaps the most politically charged consequence of the election results is their impact on the upcoming impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The Senate will serve as the impeachment court, and the newly elected senators will play a crucial role in determining her fate. The election results have reshaped the balance of power in ways that could influence the trial’s outcome.

The political power of the Dutertes remains significant, as evidenced by the Visayan votes and the fact that their allies have surprisingly secured spots in the Senate. Traditional opposition forces also made significant gains, making the impeachment trial highly unpredictable. The two-thirds majority required for conviction means that every senator’s vote will be critical. The election results suggest that the trial will be closely contested, with both sides aggressively lobbying for support. I expect some shift in allegiance to happen during the impeachment.

As the Philippines navigates these shifts, one lesson is clear: in an era of digital activism and fragmented loyalties, predicting electoral outcomes has become more difficult. The previous apathy of the young voters is beginning to turn into a critical force, and their message is one of demand for transparency, accountability, and a break from the past.

(The author is an executive member of the National Innovation Council, lead convener of the Alliance for Technology Innovators for the Nation (ATIN), vice president of the Analytics and AI Association of the Philippines, and vice president of UP System Information Technology Foundation. Email: [email protected])