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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider Comelec says 'moving factors' caused survey frontrunners to lose in Senate race

Comelec says 'moving factors' caused survey frontrunners to lose in Senate race

Published May 15, 2025 03:21 pm
The Commission on Elections (Comelec) said Thursday, May 15, that there were several "moving factors" why some candidates did not win in the actual polls despite ranking well in the surveys.
The outcome of the recently concluded mid-term polls shocked the public and some political observers after those who were projected by surveys to land in the "Magic 12" did not actually make it when the results were finally out.
These included Ramon Bong Revilla Jr., Willie Revillame, Manny Pacquiao, and Phillip Salvador--famous names who appeared on their way to secure Senate seats, but ended up losing in the elections.
On the other hand, the public was surprised to see Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan in the upper half of the top 12, with Aquino landing in second place and Pangilinan being fifth. In the surveys, Aquino ranked 10th place and lower; while Pangilinan was not even within striking distance of the top 12.
Among the "moving factors" that led to the surprising poll results was the demographics of those who were surveyed.
In a press conference on Thursday, May 15, Comelec Chairperson George Erwin Garcia said there might be groups of individuals with different voting preferences who were not surveyed.
Some individuals might have also changed their minds when the elections were already near; this meant they might have "deceived" surveyors and did not actually reveal who they planned to vote for.
"May mga grupong di pa talaga fixed kung sino ang boboto, basta may mga malagay lang, yun ang kanilang sinabi (There might also be groups of people who were undecided, but just named candidates for the sake of the surveys)," he added.
Garcia said research groups have their own scientific methodology in conducting their surveys ,and these might actually match the pulse of the voting public.
At any rate, Garcia said "surveys are not the final end results" of the elections and only serve as "basis for the decision making of the voting public".
"Kung magkaganon, wag na lang tayo magpa-election, survey na lang tayo. Para sa survey, proclaim na lang agad natin yung mananalo sa survey (If we just base it on surveys, then let's just not have elections. So when the survey results are out, we could just immediately proclaim the winners)," he said.
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