State Secretary Marco Rubio’s statement reaffirming to Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo the United States’ “ironclad commitment” to assist and defend the Philippines in the event of a hostile attack underscores the enduring significance of the US-Philippines alliance. This assurance, deeply rooted in the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), resonates strongly in today’s volatile geopolitical climate. However, it also invites a critical reflection on the consistency and effectiveness of such pledges, especially when viewed through the lens of past US administrations and the evolving dynamics of American foreign policy.
The Obama administration, with its Pivot to Asia strategy, laid a strong foundation for US engagement in the Indo-Pacific. It was under Obama that the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) was signed in 2014, allowing US forces greater access to Philippine military bases. These moves were aimed at counterbalancing China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, where Philippine sovereignty has been repeatedly challenged. While the rhetoric was clear, tangible actions—particularly during the Scarborough Shoal standoff in 2012—did not match expectations, leaving some Filipinos questioning the extent of America’s commitment.
The Trump 1.0 administration marked a shift with its America First policy, which prioritized domestic interests while projecting a transactional approach to alliances. Despite this, President Trump maintained cordial relations with then-President Rodrigo Duterte, choosing pragmatism over criticism of human rights issues. Military cooperation under Trump saw continuity, with increased joint exercises and arms sales, but the administration’s broader withdrawal from global engagements sometimes raised concerns about its reliability as a strategic partner.
President Biden, upon assuming office, restored a more traditional, multilateral approach to foreign policy. His administration reaffirmed the US commitment to the MDT and took a firmer stance on the South China Sea, backing the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated China’s expansive claims. This reassertion of US presence in the Indo-Pacific was welcomed but faced the challenge of navigating the increasingly complex relationships in the region, including China’s growing influence over smaller states.
Now, at the onset of Trump 2.0, the US leader declared a renewed emphasis on securing US dominance in global security, focusing on “peace through strength.” For the Philippines, Rubio’s reiteration of US defense commitments takes on a new dimension under this doctrine.
The question remains: how will this administration translate its promises into action? Trump’s first term demonstrated a mixed approach to alliances—often transactional and dependent on shared interests. While Duterte leveraged this to secure military aid, there were moments of uncertainty regarding America’s willingness to confront Beijing head-on. This ambiguity, coupled with Trump’s unpredictability, left Philippine policymakers cautious about fully relying on Washington.
Given these precedents, Rubio’s statement must be viewed cautiously. While it reflects continuity in US-Philippines defense ties, the geopolitical realities today are far more complex. China’s maneuvers in the South China Sea and its economic sway over ASEAN states require the US to go beyond mere verbal commitments.
For the Philippines, the renewed US pledge is a double-edged sword. While it offers reassurance in the face of external threats, it also demands careful balancing of relations with China, a major trading partner. The Marcos administration must craft a foreign policy that safeguards national security while maintaining economic stability.