The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) raised Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 over parts of Cagayan province on Sunday, Sept. 29, as “Julian” (international name “Krathon”) intensified into a severe tropical storm.

As of 5 a.m., Signal No. 2 was in effect for the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana) and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Camiguin Island, Babuyan Island).

Signal No. 1 was also hoisted over Batanes, the rest of Cagayan, the rest of Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, the eastern and central portions of Mountain Province (Natonin, Paracelis, Sadanga, Barlig, Bontoc), the easternportion of Ifugao (Aguinaldo, Alfonso Lista, Mayoyao), Ilocos Norte, the northern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao, San Juan, Magsingal, Santo Domingo, Bantay, San Ildefonso, San Vicente), and the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran).

PAGASA said the highest wind warning that may be issued during the occurrence of Julian is Signal No. 4.

Stormy weather is expected in Batanes and Babuyan Islands, while rainy and gusty conditions may prevail in mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte over the next 24 hours.

Cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms may also affect Central Luzon, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, the rest of Ilocos Region, the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, and the rest of Cagayan Valley.

PAGASA said the trough or extension of Julian may also bring partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms to Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon.

The rest of the country will also be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers due to localized thunderstorms.

Track, intensity forecast

Severe Tropical Storm Julian has maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts of up to 115 kph.

Its center was 305 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, and is moving west-northwestward at 10 kph.

PAGASA said Julian may move generally northwestward to west-northwestward until Tuesday morning, Oct. 1 towards the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area, before accelerating north to north-northeastward over the waters east of Taiwan for the rest of Tuesday onwards.

The track forecast shows a landfall or close approach scenario by Monday, Sept. 3 over Batanes or Babuyan Islands is “highly likely.”

PAGASA said Julian will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period and is expected to reach typhoon category by Sunday evening or early Monday morning. 

“There is a high chance of rapid intensification, and the possibility of reaching super typhoon category is not ruled out,” it added.

PAGASA also said Julian will be closest to Batanes and Babuyan Islands at or is near peak intensity.