Tropical Depression Julian, while not expected to make landfall, poses a significant rainfall threat to northern Luzon, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Assistant Weather Services Chief Chris Perez said on Friday, Sept. 27.
During a press conference, Perez said a High Pressure Area is influencing Julian’s movement, which may prevent the tropical depression from advancing out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) for the next five days.
Perez said the tropical depression may follow a looping path while staying over the waters east of Batanes and Cagayan during the forecast period.
If Julian stays longer, northern Luzon could be soaked in rainfall and exposed to additional hazards, such as floodings and landslides, due to its outer circulation hovering over the area, he added.
Perez said moderate to heavy rains may begin to affect Cagayan on Friday.
By Saturday, Sept. 28, moderate to heavy rainfall may prevail over Cagayan, Isabela, Batanes, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte.
By Sunday, Sept. 29, Cagayan, Batanes, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte will experience heavy to intense rainfall.
Meanwhile, Isabela, the rest of Ilocos Region, and Cordillera Administrative Region may receive moderate to heavy rainfall.
Aside from heavy rainfall forecast, Perez said Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No.1 may also be hoisted over parts of Cagayan on Friday due to the anticipated strong winds from Julian.
He added that the highest wind warning that may be issued during the occurrence of the tropical depression is Signal No. 2 or 3, as Julian may further intensify, reaching typhoon strength in the coming days.
Meanwhile, Perez said Julian’s effect on the enhancement of the southwest monsoon, or “habagat,” will be minimal, as the habagat season is almost at its tail-end.
He added that Metro Manila and the rest of the country may experience only isolated rain showers due to localized thunderstorms, reiterating that the concentration of Julian’s rains will be in northern Luzon.
As of 11 a.m. on Friday, Tropical Depression Julian is almost stationary, located 525 kilometers east of Itbayat, Batanes.
It has maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 70 kph.