The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday, Sept. 25 warned that La Niña conditions may lead to an increased risk of super typhoon occurrences during the last quarter of the year.
During a climate forum, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Liza Solis said an initial study by PAGASA revealed a historical pattern of heightened likelihood of the formation of typhoons or super typhoons during a La Niña.
“Historically, we have observed that during La Niña, especially in the last quarter of the year when tropical cyclones are more likely to make landfall or traverse the country, there is a significant increase in the chances of these cyclones reaching typhoon or super typhoon strength,” Solis explained in Filipino.
“At the same time, these cyclones, including other weather systems, are often rain-bearing. Even during weak, borderline, or La Niña-like conditions, there is still a possibility of experiencing typhoons or super typhoons. This is what we found in our initial analysis, so we urge everyone to stay vigilant and prepared,” she added.
PAGASA said around four to seven tropical cyclones may still develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility until the end of the year—two or three in October, one or two in November, and one or two in December.
In its La Niña update on Wednesday, PAGASA said El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions—where neither La Niña nor El Niño is present—are currently observed in the tropical Pacific but are “showing signs of La Niña development.”
“Most climate models, combined with expert judgments, suggest a 71 percent chance of La Niña forming in the September-October-November 2024 season and will likely persist until the first quarter (January-February-March) of 2025,” it said.
“With these model probabilities, borderline La Niña or La Niña-like conditions will be likely during the forecast period,” it added.
La Niña usually heightens the likelihood of above-normal rainfall, which can lead to floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.