DOST eyes inserting AI into weather forecasting; produce rain forecasts every 15 minutes

Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Secretary Renato Solidum, Jr. said on Wednesday, Sept. 11, that they will soon make use of artificial intelligence (AI) in weather forecasting, producing rain forecasts every 15 minutes.

"Soon we will now operate through our research program to use AI in weather forecasting. So instead of every three hours computation, every 15 minutes po ang aming (is our) target so that it can be provided to the public," Solidum said during the deliberations of the proposed budget of DOST and its attached agencies which includes the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

"So once we are able to develop the AI-improved weather forecast for example 15 mins ang target natin, every 5 days po may forecast ang PAGASA ng rain. Gusto po namin maging 14 days yun with AI (We want that to be 14 days with AI)," he added.

Senator Juan Miguel "Migz" Zubiri, who presided over the Senate finance subcommittee hearing, expressed concern over the number of active doppler radars hoisted across the country which according to PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando, 11 of 19 are operational. These radars are used to detect rainfall.

Servando mentioned that some of these have already been damaged while the other are already due to be replaced. Solidum said that the country needs at most 21 radars. 

"Pagdating naman po sa doppler...kaya po 19 or 21 ang aming target kasi mayroon yang redundancy so kahit po masira or di operational yung iba, the existing doppler radar can cover (When it comes to doppler radars...the reason why 19 or 21 is needed is because of redundancy or if one or serveral is not operational, the existing ones can cover)," Solidum explained.

"Kasi tumatanda rin ang radar minsan papalitan it's not a system that you can buy off shelf, kailangan mo pang i-award bago sila gumawa. Kailangan pong dagdagan pa talaga up to 21 (These radars eventually get old and need to be replaced and it's also not a system that can be bought off the shelf, it has to be awarded to be created. We really need to add more, up to 21)," he added.

Zubiri has expressed support for funding the additional doppler radars. 

On the other hand, Zubiri pointed out that in other countries, they can predict the exact time when it would rain as well as the time it would stop which is something that cannot be observed in the Philippine weather forecast.

"There is a big difference between continental meteorology and meteorology in an archipelago like the Philippines. We have many water systems and many sources of weather systems because of the archipelagic meter," Solidum said.

"So by nature, madaling mag-forecast sa continents kesa sa archipelago (it's easier to forecast in continents compared to an archipelago)," he added.

Solidum also stated that PAGASA is practicing what is called impact-based forecasting which means that instead of just determining if it will rain, this approach establishes the effects of the rain so that suitable action can be made. 

“PAGASA produces several rainfall warning, 24 hour rainfall forecast, dapat yung disaster manager should read the forecast for the area,” Solidum said. 

“What is lacking is the actual standard operating procedure to be done in local level,” he added.