An OCTA Research survey for the second quarter of 2024 showed increased support for President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and declining backing for Vice President Sara Duterte.

Based on the survey results released on Tuesday, Aug. 6, 36 percent of adult Filipinos identified as “pro-Marcos,” 16 percent as “pro-Duterte,” and 31 percent as “independents.”

The results showed that pro-Marcos support—individuals backing President Marcos and his administration—increased from 31 percent in the first quarter of 2024, while pro-Duterte support—those backing the Duterte family and their allies—decreased from 20 percent.

Meanwhile, the proportion of independents—those who do not identify as pro-Marcos, pro-Duterte, or opposition—increased by two percent from the previous quarter. However, this change remains within the margin of error.

OCTA also found that 5 percent of adult Filipinos support the opposition, with a slight one-percent increase from the previous survey, though still within the margin of error.

The remaining 11 percent were “ambivalent” or unsure about their political preferences.

Preferences across major areas, socioeconomic classes

Across major areas, OCTA said around four out of 10 Filipinos in the National Capital Region and Balance Luzon identify as pro-Marcos (43 percent and 42 percent, respectively).

In Mindanao, nearly three out of every 10 Filipinos (25 percent) support President Marcos, with a significant portion of the overall support coming from Balance Luzon (32 percent).

Among socioeconomic classes, pro-Marcos respondents are primarily from Classes ABC and D, with 40 percent and 37 percent, respectively.

In Class E, 25 percent identify as pro-Marcos.

Meanwhile, Filipinos who identify as pro-Duterte or support the Duterte family and its allies remain influential in Mindanao, where 50 percent of the population backs them.

In contrast, support is much lower in NCR and Balance Luzon, at 7 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

In the Visayas, only 11 percent identify as pro-Duterte.

Across socioeconomic classes, 33 percent of Class E supports the Duterte family, followed by 16 percent of Class D and just 4 percent of Class ABC.

OCTA also observed that support for the opposition varies by region, from zero to 16 percent.

The highest support is in the Visayas at 16 percent, followed by NCR and Balance Luzon at 5 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

No respondents in Mindanao support the opposition.

Regarding socioeconomic class, support for the opposition ranges from 2 percent to 8 percent, with the highest in Class E at 8 percent.

In addition, the proportion of independents is highest in the Visayas at 41 percent, followed by Balance Luzon at 34 percent, NCR at 33 percent, and Mindanao at 17 percent.

Pro-Marcos support highest among those aged 75 and up

Regarding age groups, support for President Marcos ranges from 29 percent to 69 percent, with the highest support among Filipinos aged 75 and above.

In contrast, pro-Duterte support ranges from 6 percent to 21 percent, with the lowest support among those aged 75 and above.

Meanwhile, support for the opposition varies between 1 percent and 9 percent.

Locality, gender-based support differences

In terms of locality, support for President Marcos is slightly higher in rural areas (37 percent) than in urban areas (35 percent).

Similarly, pro-Duterte support is marginally higher in rural areas (19 percent) than in urban areas (15 percent).

Conversely, support for the opposition is slightly higher in urban areas (6 percent) compared to rural areas (4 percent).

By gender, support for the Marcos administration is higher among males (39 percent) compared to females (33 percent).

Pro-Duterte support is nearly equal for both genders, with 16 percent of males and 17 percent of females backing her.

Support for the opposition is also similar, with 6 percent of males and 5 percent of females showing support.

Support by educ’l level

Regarding educational levels, support for President Marcos ranges from 29 percent to 54 percent, with the highest support among those with vocational education (54 percent), followed by individuals with college or postgraduate education (44 percent).

Pro-Duterte support ranges from 10 percent to 31 percent, with the highest support among those with no formal or only elementary education (31 percent).

Meanwhile, support for the opposition ranges from 4 percent to 8 percent.

The Tugon na Masa survey, conducted from June 26 to July 1, used face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above.

National estimates have ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.

Meanwhile, subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have a ±6 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.