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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider 6 to 10 tropical cyclones still possible until end-2024 — PAGASA

6 to 10 tropical cyclones still possible until end-2024 — PAGASA

Published Aug 28, 2024 05:12 am
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Historical cyclone tracks in the Philippines (PAGASA)

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the country may still experience six to 10 tropical cyclones from September to December.

Speaking at PAGASA’s climate forum on Wednesday, Aug. 28, Senior Weather Specialist Rusy Abastillas said that tropical cyclones may still form or enter the Philippine area of responsibility until the end of the year, with two to three possible in September, two to three in October, one to two in November, and one to two in December.

In September, Abastillas said potential cyclones may pass through northern or central Luzon.

In October, she explained that some cyclones may recurve or move away from the country, but most will cross northern Luzon, central Luzon, or the Visayas.

Meanwhile, in November, the tracks are expected to shift southward and may primarily affect southern Luzon, the Visayas, or northern Mindanao, Abastillas added.

She said the same track pattern is expected through December.

Although the frequency of cyclones will decrease in December, some may still recurve and move close to Luzon, while more will cross southern Luzon, the Visayas, or northern Mindanao, she added.

In January and February 2025, there will be fewer cyclones, with a forecast of “zero to one tropical cyclone.”

Abastillas said that during this period, cyclones are likely to either make landfall, dissipate due to cooler temperatures, or recurve away from the country.

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cyclone tracks PAGASA tropical cyclone
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