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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider 2028 poll chances hurt? Solon analyzes VP Sara's 19-point net satisfaction rating plunge 

2028 poll chances hurt? Solon analyzes VP Sara's 19-point net satisfaction rating plunge 

Published Aug 11, 2024 02:23 am

At A Glance

  • Putting his political analyst cap on, Manila 3rd district Rep. Joel Chua claimed that the huge drop in Vice President Sara Duterte's net satisfaction rating in June 2024 could end up impacting her chances in 2028. 

20240420_125942.jpgManila 3rd district Rep. Joel Chua (left), Vice President Sara Duterte (Facebook)

Putting his political analyst cap on, Manila 3rd district Rep. Joel Chua claimed that the huge drop in Vice President Sara Duterte's net satisfaction rating in June 2024 could end up impacting her chances in 2028.

Chua was referring to the results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, which indicated that Vice President Duterte's net satisfaction rating plunged by 19 percemtage points from 63 percent in March 2024 to 44 percent in June 2024.

"This decrease is noteworthy for several reasons, particularly if she is considering a bid for the presidency in 2028," Chua, a critic of the lady official, said.

"If this trend continues, it could affect Duterte’s chances in a 2028 presidential bid. A continued decline might embolden potential rivals and weaken her ability to secure early endorsements or support from key political allies. It could also shift the dynamics within her political base, leading to challenges from within her own party or coalition," he said.

He said that, if left unaddressed, this decline "could weaken her position in the run-up to the 2028 elections, making her more vulnerable to political rivals and diminishing her appeal to the broader electorate".

He said the decline is most pronounced in regions where she previously had strong support. For example, in the Visayas, her rating dropped by 22 points, and in Balance Luzon, it fell by 26 points. Even in Mindanao, her stronghold, there was a 7-point decline.

"This could signal vulnerabilities that her political opponents might exploit, especially in regions outside of her core base in Mindanao," said the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD) stalwart.

"The drop was significant across various demographics, including a 21-point decline among men and notable decreases among both younger and older voters. This suggests that the dissatisfaction is not limited to one group but is more widespread, potentially making it harder for her to reverse the trend," he sad.

Continuing his diagnosis, Chua said the 19-percentage point decline could be attributed to several factors, "such as public perception of her performance in office, handling of specific issues, or external events that may have affected her popularity".

"Without specific data on the causes, it's challenging to pinpoint exactly why her ratings dropped, but it could be related to recent national issues or controversies," he added.

At the very least, Chua said it's time for the Vice President and her team "to reassess their strategies".

Vice President Duterte, daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte, has not announced any plans for the May 2028 elections.

Related Tags

2028 elections Sara Duterte social weather stations (SWS) Joel Chua
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