Parts of Luzon, including Metro Manila where President Marcos’ third State of the Nation Address (SONA) will be held, may experience rain showers on Monday, July 22, due to the southwest monsoon enhanced by tropical storm “Carina” (international name: “Gaemi”).

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Sunday, July 21 that the southwest monsoon, or “habagat,” may bring occasional moderate to intense rains and thunderstorms over the western portions of Luzon from Monday to Tuesday, July 23.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms may affect Antique, Occidental Mindoro, Zambales, Bataan, Pangasinan, La Union, and the northern Palawan, including Cuyo, Calamian, and Kalayaan Islands.

Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms may also occur in Metro Manila, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, the rest of Palawan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, the rest of Visayas, and Mindanao.

Signal No. 1 possible

As of 4 a.m., PAGASA said Carina was located 490 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, and has slightly intensified with maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 90 kph.

It is currently moving west-northwestward at 10 kph and is less likely to make landfall.

However, its outer circulation may still affect some areas in eastern Luzon.

PAGASA said the possibility of hoisting Wind Signal No. 1 over extreme Northern Luzon and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan by Sunday evening or Monday is not ruled out, in anticipation of strong winds associated with the storm.

It added that moderate to heavy rains (50 to 100 millimeters) may affect the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands by Monday.

On Tuesday, heavy to intense rains (100 to 200 millimeters) are expected in Batanes and moderate to heavy rains in Babuyan Islands.

Further intensification

PAGASA said Carina may steadily intensify over the next four days due to favorable environmental conditions.

It may become a severe tropical storm by Monday and a typhoon by Tuesday.

“Rapid intensification within the forecast period is possible,” PAGASA said.

Carina is projected to move generally northwestward over the Philippine Sea between Sunday and Monday, then shift northward by Tuesday.

Based on the track forecast, Carina is expected to remain far from the Philippine landmass and exit the country’s area of responsibility by Wednesday, July 24.