The Department of Energy (DOE) is anticipating capacity injection of additional 1,300 megawatts of coal capacities in the next few years before renewable energy (RE) could overtake that traditionally-dominant fossil fuel technology in the energy mix by 2028.

Energy Undersecretary Rowena Cristina Guevara said at least four more coal plant projects would be advancing to commercial operations – and these were all exempted from the coal moratorium because they have been proposed and had already kicked off developments prior to the policy’s enforcement.

“The point here is that: we cannot stop those coal developments that were approved before the moratorium – they’re going to come in. But we would be going to see the last of them coming in by this year,” she stressed.

The expected capacity additions are those from the Masinloc and Limay facilities; the expansion of the Therma Visayas Inc. plant in Cebu, as well as the coal project of DMCI in Palawan which was also designed to be coupled with biomass as well as eventual wind integration.

The energy official qualified that king coal’s dominance in the country’s energy mix will start waning by 2028; and that could be prompted by the targeted entry of gigawatt-scale offshore wind capacities as well as the array of RE projects of various project-sponsors.

“Renewables will start to overtake by 2028, that’s what we’ve been seeing because offshore wind could potentially wipe out coal in the energy mix,” Guevara noted.

According to Wind Energy Developers Association of the Philippines (WEDAP) President Poch Ambrosio, the wind turbine (WT) assessment for 3,600MW of offshore wind installation in the Ilocos region could yield capacity factor ranging from 54 to 63%, hence, this is the main attraction for capital flow in the sector.

Coal is currently is the major source of baseload capacity in the power system of the country, but RE developers indicate that such can be replaced if the variable RE technologies will be efficiently coupled with energy storage systems.

In a statement to the media, the Electric Power Industry Management Bureau (EPIMB) of the DOE emphasized that the coal moratorium issued in December 2020 “is not a total ban.”

The department qualified that “the policy does not cover existing and operational coal-fired power generation facilities as well as any coal-fired power projects considered committed power projects; existing power plant complexes which already have firm expansion plans and existing land site provisions.”

Further, the moratorium also exempted “indicative power projects with substantial accomplishments, particularly with signed and notarized land acquisition or lease agreement for the projects , and with approved permits or resolution from local government units and the Regional Development Council where the power plants will be located.”

The DOE specified that several project-sponsors have requested the agency’s confirmation on non-coverage and “these were ministerially issued after verification.”