Private sector economists expect June inflation to be close to the higher end of the government's target range of manageable consumer price hikes.
Dutch bank ING projected an above-target headline rate of 4.1 percent year-on-year for June, from the 3.9 percent posted in May.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will release its June 2024 inflation report on Friday, July 5.
Last week, the Development Budget Coordination Committee revised its inflation forecast for this year, narrowing it to a range of three to four percent from the previous two to four percent.
"Last May, the price level was depressed by sharp falls in transport costs and we don’t expect such a big decline this month. Rice prices appear to be rising at a slower pace, but there are likely to be some offsetting rises from seasonal fruit and vegetable prices that will result in about a 0.3 percent month-on-month increase in the price level from May," ING said in a June 28 report.
Think tank Capital Economics, meanwhile, estimated June's inflation rate at 3.9 percent, matching the previous month's pace of year-on-year price increases, and similar to the median forecast.
With expectations of easing and within-target inflation for the rest of this year, "we are sticking with our view that the central bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting in August, which is sooner than other analysts are expecting," Capital Economics said in a June 28 report, referring to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
Capital Economics said the BSP's decision to leave interest rates uncharged during last Thursday's monetary policy meeting "came as no surprise." The key policy rate currently stands at a 17-year high of 6.5 percent.
"However, the tone of the statement and the press conference were very dovish, with the BSP stating that 'if sustained, an improvement in the inflation outlook would allow more scope to consider a less restrictive monetary policy stance,'" Capital Economics said.
Last Friday, the BSP said inflation for June could hit a low of 3.4 percent versus 3.9 percent in May, or hit a high of 4.2 percent due to spikes in the prices of rice, vegetables, meat and fish.
The BSP said price increases in agricultural commodities such as rice, vegetables, meat, and fish; the weaker peso at the P58 level; and higher domestic oil prices are “primary sources of upward price pressures” for the month.
But, the BSP said the June consumer price index (CPI) could be lower than May on account of the lower electricity rates and fruit prices.