The country’s ambition to become upper middle-income status could be achieved in 2026, later than the government’s projection of 2025. That is, if the peso does not depreciate.

National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan, during a briefing on Thursday, June 27, said that this was in line with the government’s projected growth of 6.5 percent to 8 percent by 2026 to 2028.

“Last year, the growth assumptions then, were seeing 2025 but of course you know we have revised down the growth and so its impossible to reach, but perhaps toward the latter part of 2025,” Balisacan said in the briefing after the 188th meeting of Development Budget Coordination Committee.

Sought for clarification, the NEDA chief said that upper middle-income status could be achieved in “late 2025 or early 2026” as there are things that are out of their control.

Ralph Van Doorn, World Bank senior economist for the Philippines, earlier said that the the status could be achieved in the next two to three years, noting that it is difficult to project as threshold of the countries’ income is being adjusted constantly.

The Philippines is currently classified lower middle-income country with a gross national income (GNI) per capita of $3,950.

For the country to elevate its status to an upper-middle income country (UMIC) by 2025, its GNI per capita should range from $4,466 to $13,845.

Maintained economic targets

The DBCC retained its economic target 6 percent to 7 percent for this year, 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent by 2025, and 6.5 to 8 percent by 2026 to 8 percent.

It expects a decrease in goods imports growth for the current year, with its projection set at 2.0 percent, a decrease from the previous target of 4.0 percent.

Looking ahead, imports growth is projected to rise to 5.0 percent next year instead of the previous 7.0 percent and retained the 8.0 percent projection for 2026 to 2028.

“Nonetheless, goods imports will remain supported by sustained infrastructure investments and are expected to grow by 8.0 percent from 2026 to 2028,” the DBCC said in a statement.

Meanwhile, the DBCC noted that the expected outturn in the first quarter and an improved outlook for the global semiconductor market would prompt the exports to grow to 5.0 percent this year, up from the earlier target of 3.0 percent.

Nevertheless, the DBCC remained optimistic about the country's exports the following years, expecting them to rebound with an annual growth rate of 6.0 percent from 2025 to 2028.

Additionally, the DBCC has adjusted its peso-US dollar exchange rate projection for 2024, widening the range to 56 to 58 from the previously set 55 to 57.

“This is expected to broadly stabilize at Php 55 to Php 58 against the USD for the remainder of the medium term, given increasing tourism receipts, growing BPO revenues, and robust overseas Filipinos remittances that will support and keep the currency stable and resilient against persisting global headwinds,” the inter-agency said.

Nevertheless, the inter-agency committee has decided to keep the foreign exchange assumption unchanged at 55 to 58 for the period spanning 2025 to 2028.