The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Wednesday, June 26, that it is continuously monitoring the potential development of La Niña toward the end of the year.
During a climate forum, PAGASA-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis cited a 50 percent chance of La Niña developing between October and December 2024, possibly persisting through January to March 2025.
“We might see a weak, short-lived La Niña pero kung hindi man matuloy, magkakaroon ng La Niña-like conditions (We might see a weak, short-lived La Niña, but if it does not materialize, there will be La Niña-like conditions),” she said.
“Mayroon pang slight uncertainty sa ating La Niña projection sa ngayon pero pagdating ng July-August, medyo tataas na ‘yung confidence natin sa forecast (There is still slight uncertainty in our La Niña projection at the moment, but by July-August, our confidence in the forecast will increase),” she added.
Solis noted that due to the likelihood of La Niña development, above-normal rainfall conditions are expected in some areas as early as September.
She also pointed out that the active northeast monsoon, or “amihan,” in the fourth quarter, coupled with the influence of La Niña, will likely result in above-normal rainfall in more areas.
This effect will be further intensified by other rain-bearing weather systems, including tropical cyclones.
Based on PAGASA’s rainfall outlook, most parts of Luzon and Eastern Visayas are expected to experience below-normal rainfall in July, while most of Mindanao may have near-normal conditions.
From August to September, near-normal rainfall conditions are projected across the country.
From October to November, near to above-normal rainfall conditions are anticipated nationwide.
By December, above-normal rainfall is expected, with some areas in Ilocos Region, Soccsksargen, and Caraga experiencing patches of near-normal rainfall.