The low pressure area (LPA) east of Mindanao developed into a tropical depression at 2 a.m. on Friday, May 24, and was given the name “Aghon,” the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2024.
In its tropical cyclone bulletin issued at 5 a.m., the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Aghon was located 340 kilometers east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, moving west-northwestward at 30 kilometers per hour (kph).
It has maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center and gusts of up to 55 kph.
Based on its track forecast, PAGASA said Aghon may “make a close approach or make landfall” over Eastern Samar on Saturday morning, May 25, while remaining a tropical depression.
Due to the anticipated strong winds from Aghon, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal Number 1 has been hoisted on Friday over Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Siargao Islands, and Bucas Grande Islands.
PAGASA said more areas in Eastern Visayas and Caraga Region may be placed under Signal No. 1 in its next bulletin at 11 a.m.
It added that Signal No. 2 may be the highest wind signal that will be raised during the passage of Aghon.
Rainfall forecast
PAGASA warned that Aghon may also bring moderate to heavy rains (50 to 100 millimeters) to Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, the northern portion of Surigao del Sur, the eastern portion of Southern Leyte, and the southern portion of Eastern Samar on Friday.
By Saturday, heavy to intense rains (100 to 200 millimeters) may affect Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsogon.
Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rains may continue in Dinagat Islands and the rest of Bicol and Eastern Visayas.
By Sunday, May 26, moderate to heavy rains may persist in Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.
PAGASA said Aghon may also cause moderate to rough seas along the northern and eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas, as well as the eastern seaboard of Caraga Region.
Mariners of motor bancas and similar-sized vessels are advised to exercise caution when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions, particularly if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Track, intensity outlook
PAGASA said Aghon will move north-northwestward over Eastern Visayas before emerging off the east coast of Bicol Region on Saturday afternoon or evening as a tropical storm.
By Sunday, Aghon will be “recurving generally northeastward or north-northeastward” over the waters east of Luzon, while gradually intensifying.
The current forecast scenario shows an intensification into a severe tropical storm by mid-Sunday and a typhoon by Tuesday, May 28.
Given the westward shift in Aghon’s track forecast and the forecast probability cone, PAGASA said a slightly earlier landfall over Eastern Samar and a direct passage in the vicinity of Bicol Region are not ruled out at this time.