An economist has cast doubt on the possibility of rice prices falling to P20 per kilo, citing the disruptive effects of persistent extreme weather events like El Niño on agricultural yields as factors that make such a price reduction improbable.

Carlos Manapat, chair of the economics department at the University of Santo Tomas, epxlained how the El Niño phenomenon is impacting rice yields, a factor that also played a role in the 0.07 inflation increase observed last month.

“[As we all know] rice planting takes months to harvest… With low water supply brought by climate change, it will affect the [domestic] yield,” Manapat told Manila Bulletin.

For this reason, Manapat said that the P20 per kilo of rice may not be a realistic ideal, “unless there’s [effective] government intervention, rice prices won’t go down the same as it did in the 1980s.”

The inflation rate for rice surged to 24.4 percent in March, surpassing the 23.7 percent recorded in February. This marks the fastest increase for the grain in 15 years, or since it reached 24.6 percent in February 2009.

Other food commodities, like meat, have also contributed to the country's 3.7 percent headline inflation last month.

“The same goes for the meat inflation… the lack of output due to recent outbreaks caused by bacteria, [is correlated to] climate change.”

Can we omit rice from our everyday lives?

Some consumers may feel the constant stress of witnessing the increasing price of food commodities.

When asked what would happen to consumer trends, Manapat said that rice demand will not go down anytime soon.

“Rice is inelastic, so despite the prices going up, Filipinos will still buy it [because] there’s no substitute for this commodity. There’s nothing we can do about it.”

Meanwhile, the UST economist believes that developing new rice variants can sustain the ample supply without worrying about the effects of both El Niño and La Niña.

In a recent interview with PTV, Department of Agriculture (DA) Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa emphasized the need for buffer stock which would help Filipinos purchase rice at a certain price in the next 50 to 60 days. 

Buffer stocking rice is done to provide consumers with enough supply during periods of shortage or high demand. 

De Mesa also ensured that the dry season will come to an end by July or August, tempering down the surging prices for rice, while the DA plans to boost import levels to secure supply.

"We’re not expecting a surge in rice prices soon since March was declared as the peak of the El Niño season,” he said. “We’re pursuing various programs for palay. We’re hoping this would boost the production rate… The National Irrigation Administration [NIA] and other agencies are helping to lessen the impact [of the dry spell].”