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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider PAGASA: El Niño continues to weaken but hotter, drier conditions may persist

PAGASA: El Niño continues to weaken but hotter, drier conditions may persist

Published Apr 24, 2024 04:05 am

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday, April 24 said the El Niño is gradually weakening, but its effects may still be felt in the country.

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Farmers burying metal pipe to assess water flow beneath an onion and rice field for possible deep well irrigation during a hot day with a 41 degree Celcius temparature in Brgy. San Isidro, San Jose, Occidental Mindoro, on Sunday, April 21, 2024. San Jose was under the state of calamity in March due to El Niño. (Noel B. Pabalate/Manila Bulletin)

During the PAGASA’s climate forum, Climatology and Agrometeorology Division-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CAD-CLIMPS) Senior Weather Specialist Ruby Abastillas warned that while the El Niño phenomenon is weakening, hotter and drier conditions may persist. 

In May, PAGASA forecasts maximum temperatures of 31.5-40.8 degrees Celsius (°C) in Northern Luzon; 31.7-39.8°C in lowlands Luzon; 26.3-29.0°C in mountainous Luzon; 36.5-38.3°C in Metro Manila; 32.5-37.5°C in lowlands Visayas; 33.4-38.8°C in lowlands Mindanao; and 34-36.3°C in mountainous Mindanao. 

Meanwhile, for the May rainfall forecast, PAGASA said “below-normal” rainfall (41-80 millimeters) is expected in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and northern Mindanao, while “near-normal” rainfall (81-120 mm) will be felt in northern Luzon and the rest of Mindanao, with a high probability of below-normal in most parts of the country.

In June, below-normal rainfall will be experienced in most parts of western and Central Luzon as well as in some parts of Visayas, while near-normal rainfall will be felt in most of the country with high probability for below-normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas and high probability for near to above-normal (more than 120 mm) in the eastern side of Luzon, some parts of Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao. 

For July, below-normal to near-normal rainfall will occur in Luzon and Visayas, while Mindanao may have near-normal with some areas being under above-normal rainfall condition. 

In August, near-normal conditions will be felt in most of the country, but still, the western Luzon may have below-normal rainfall, while Visayas and Mindanao may have patches of above-normal rainfall. 

PAGASA said in April-May-June season, there is an increasing probability of 85 percent for an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral occurrence, while the probability for La Niña in June-July-August season remained at 62 percent. 

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PAGASA El Niño phenomenon
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