As global oil prices softened in the last two trading days, the estimated rollback for diesel and kerosene prices have gone heftier to P1.00 per liter level, based on the calculation of the oil companies.

According to the industry players, the price of diesel will likely be trimmed by P0.80 to P1.20 per liter; while kerosene prices will be reduced by P0.75 to P1.15 per liter which are due to be reflected at gasoline stations by Tuesday (April 23).

The trend for gasoline products, however, had remained on the reverse side with estimated price hike of P0.30 to P0.70 per liter.

If reckoned on the outcome of full week regional trading as anchored on the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), the calculated price cuts have been P1.205 per liter for diesel and P1.158 per liter for kerosene; while it would be an increase of P0.317 per liter for gasoline products.

The oil firms in the country are mostly sourcing finished petroleum products from the regional market, hence, MOPS is being applied as the major yardstick for pricing adjustments at the domestic pumps.

Prior to the forthcoming round of price changes, adjustments since the start of the year already summed up to aggregate increases of P9.70 per liter for gasoline; P7.00 per liter for diesel; and P2.25 per liter for kerosene products.

There had been general anticipation of massive spikes in prices this week following Iran’s missile and drone assaults on Israel last week, while the latter had retaliated on Friday; but market sentiments had not leaned much on geopolitical events in the past trading days.

Conversely, industry experts noted that concerns were focused more on other key market fundamentals such as the inventory shoring up in the US market as well as on continuing skepticism on China’s economic growth.

With the intensifying tension in the Middle East, however, policymakers in the US are primarily scrutinizing the oil purchases that China has been transacting with Iran, although these are not showing that much impact yet in the current seesaw of global oil prices.

The Paris-headquartered International Energy Agency (IEA) similarly indicated that while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and ally-producers in the so-called “Vienna Alliance’ had earlier announced extension of their voluntary production cuts, supply boost is anticipated to be coming from non-OPEC (NOPEC) producers – primarily the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana.

As of Friday (April 19), international benchmark Brent crude momentarily climbed back to $90 per barrel, but it also retreated to $86 per barrel at trading close due to other market developments, including the deferred re-imposition of sanctions on Venezuelan oil.

For an oil import-dependent economy like the Philippines, this relentless rollercoaster ride in oil prices will constantly jolt consumers’ budgets and will also pose continuing uncertainty on economic growth targets.