Consumers filling up gasoline products in their vehicles will have dreaded stop at the oil pumps next week, as the price of this commodity is expected to increase; while diesel and kerosene prices will be on a more favorable track of rollback.

Based on the mid-week estimates of the oil companies, the price of gasoline products will rise by P0.60 to P1.00 per liter; while diesel prices will likely decline by P0.30 to P0.70 per liter; and kerosene prices will be down by P0.25 to P0.65 per liter.

The three-day outcome of trading in the regional market as indexed on the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) yielded probable hike of P0.692 per liter for gasoline; then reduction of P0.512 per liter for diesel; and P0.44 per liter for kerosene.

The industry players noted though that there would still be two remaining days of trading in the international market, thus, the full week adjustments in prices may still change by the close of trading on Friday (April 19).

Apart from volatile swing in product costs, the oil firms are also monitoring developments in the foreign exchange (forex) rate as the Philippine peso already breached P57 level versus the US dollar.

The major determinants for pump price adjustments are the purchase prices of finished petroleum products or crude in the world market; the fluctuations in the peso-dollar exchange rate and the costs of ethanol and biodiesel blends.

While there had been earlier expectations of upticks in oil prices this week because of Iran’s drone and missile attacks on Israel, market watchers conveyed that such sentiment had not manifested much in trading outcomes.

It was emphasized that traders have re-focused much of their attention on market fundamentals, instead of getting perturbed by the intensifying tension in the Middle East.

Major factors affecting market dynamics since last week included the extended output cuts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and ally-producers (OPEC+); but glimmers of hope are also seen from possible production boost from non-OPEC producers.

In particular, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted that “the sustained output curbs by OPEC+ mean that non-OPEC+ producers, led by the Americas, are expected to continue driving world oil supply growth through 2025.”

It further indicated that the additional volumes could be pumped in by the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana; and these could serve as offset to the trimmed outputs of OPEC+ producers.

As of Wednesday (April 18), international benchmark Brent crude had skidded to $87 per barrel from last week’s climb to $90 per barrel level.