Rotational blackouts at various provinces in the Luzon grid as well as Metro Manila areas may roll by 2:00 to 4:00pm this afternoon, according to the latest advisories of system operator National Grid Corporation of the Philippines and power utility giant Manila Electric Company.

The first batch of consumers who will potentially suffer service interruptions between 2:00 to 3:00pm will be those served by Ilocos Norte Electric Cooperative, Isabela Electric Cooperative, Cagayan Electric Cooperative, Batangas I Electric Cooperative and Olongapo Electricity Distribution Company.

In Metro Manila, Meralco advised that indicative brownouts could be scheduled at: Bagong Silang-Kaliwa, Bagong Silang-Kanan as well as Camarin in Caloocan; Malate in Manila; BF Homes in Paranaque; a default barangay in Pasay; Bambang, Caniogan, Kapasigan, Palatiw, Sagad, San Miguel, San Nicolas, Santa Cruz, Santo Tomas and Sumilang in Pasig; Batasan Hills, Commonwealth, Fairview and Holy Spirit in Quezon City; then Lower Bicutan, Maharlika Village, Signal Village, Upper Bicutan and Western Bicutan in Taguig.

Following that latest advisory, NGCP cautioned consumers to “exercise prudence in using electricity.”

The grid operator, nevertheless, noted that “schedule may be cancelled if system condition improves, such as if actual demand falls below projections.”

As of press time, there are no specific areas within the identified provinces and Metro Manila cities reported yet the extent of power service interruptions they have been suffering from – including the total number of consumers plunged into darkness while enduring scorching weather temperatures.

As earlier announced by NGCP, red alert hours on power supply will be sustained until 4:00pm; then at prime time hours of 6:00 to 9:00pm this Tuesday – and that had been precipitated by the forced outages of 19 electric generating units in the Luzon grid

A red alert, in particular, is declared by system operator NGCP when the reserves requirement in the system would fall below 4.0 percent vis-à-vis projected peak demand.

The power grid operator emphasized that “19 power plants are on forced outages; while three others are running on derated capacities, or a total of 2,117.3 megawatts unavailable to the grid.”

Apart from that, yellow alert or a state of power reserves insufficiency has also been distressing Luzon grid from 1:00pm to 2:00pm; then at 4:00 to 6:00pm and 9:00 to 11:00pm; while the same yellow alert has also been raised for Visayas grid from 2:00 to 4:00pm and 6:00 to 7:00pm.

For Visayas, NGCP noted that “12 power plants are on forced outages; while five others are on derated capacities for a total of 676.5MW unavailable to the grid.”

Plant outages

Based on data from NGCP, the electric generating units suddenly taken out from the system in the Luzon grid due to forced outages have been those of Masinloc 1; Southwest Luzon Power Generation Corp 2; Santa Rita plant module 40; Binga 1, Binga 4, Ambuklao 1 and 2; Bakun 1 and 2 units; Maris 1 and 2 units; the generating unit of the National Irrigation Administration; Bineng plant; Irisan;  Pagbilao units 1 and 2; VS Gripal plant and BT 2020 generating units.

From the forced outages of the generating facilities, it was reported by the grid operator that there was a loss of aggregate 1,811.3 megawatts in the system.

On top of that, there are also three major plants with capacity de-rating (reduced power generation) of at least 306MW - including those of the South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation units 1 and 2; as well as the Ilijan Block A generating unit.

For Tuesday (April 16), the estimated peak demand for Luzon grid was at 13,024 megawatts; while available capacity was extremely tight at 13,537MW.

In the Visayas grid, peak demand forecast was at 2,440MW; while available capacity had been pegged by the system operator at 2,742MW.

The plant outages in the Visayas grid have been: San Carlos biomass plant; HPC cogeneration plant; Victorias Milling Co. plant; Palm Concepcion Power; Power Barges 101 units 2 and 3;  South Negros BioPower Plant; Therma Visayas Inc. unit 2; First Farmers Holding Corp plant; and Panay diesel power plant unit 3-G; while those with de-rated capacities are the Leyte A geothermal plant; Palinpinon geothermal power plant; Cebu Energy Development Corp unit 3; Tongonan geothermal power plant and Panay diesel power plant unit 3-E facility.

As conveyed by the hydro plants, the unavailability of their capacities had been mainly due to extremely low water elevation – which is a cyclical phenomenon during summer months; and it was aggravated this time by the El Nino phenomenon.

Given the extremely strained power supply in the grid, power utility giant Manila Electric Company (Meralco) indicated that it is “closely monitoring the situation and will give updates as soon as available.”