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Manila Bulletin devider Environment and Sustainability devider Weaker El Niño in 2024 but expect impact, WMO reports

Weaker El Niño in 2024 but expect impact, WMO reports

An update on El Niño and La Niña this year

Published Mar 8, 2024 04:09 am

According to a recent assessment from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 60 percent possibility that El Niño will continue from March to May, and an 80 percent chance that neutral conditions will prevail from April to June.

The update also said that La Niña's potential development later in the year is uncertain.

El Niño, which occurs every two to seven years and lasts for nine to 12 months, is associated with warming of the ocean surface in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Oceans.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo attributed the record-high global temperatures observed since June 2023 to El Niño and greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans.

“Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record – and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. El Niño has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo in a press release.

“Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Niño. But sea surface temperatures in other parts of the globe have been persistently and unusually high for the past 10 months. The January 2024 sea-surface temperature was by far the highest on record for January. This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Niño alone,” the secretary-general added.

According to the same report, sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean rose by around 2.0°C over the average from 1991 to 2020 during the peak of the current El Niño event, which started in June 2023 and reached its highest strength between November and January, despite the fact that El Niño's main effects usually occur in its second year.

Related Tags

World Meteorological Organization La Niña MBEnvironment MBSustainability El Niño
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