There is still a "slim" chance for a tropical cyclone to develop or enter the country's area of responsibility (PAR) in March, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Monday, Feb. 27.
PAGASA-Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Officer-in-Charge Ana Liza Solis said “zero to one” tropical cyclones may enter or form within PAR in March.
Meanwhile, weather specialist of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Joey Figuracion said the tropical cyclone climatological track for March includes: non-landfalling tropical cyclones formed in the Western Pacific that possibly enters PAR but may recurve, and landfalling tropical cyclones that may enter Western Pacific, makes landfall in Central Philippines, and dissipates in the South China Sea.
Moreover, in April, zero to one tropical cyclone was forecast to enter or form within PAR, while in May and June, there may be one or two cyclones, and in July and August, two or three cyclones may be expected to form or enter the country's area of responsibility, said Solis.
In total, around six to nine tropical cyclones may be expected with their effects depending on the situations during the forecast period.
"Based on climatological track, either papasok lang siya sa Philippine area of responsibility maaaring mag-recurve siya, posibleng hindi pa rin siya makapagpaulan or depende sa timing kung nagkakaroon tayo ng habagat or southwest monsoon, pwedeng ma-enhance noong bagyo iyong southwest monsoon na posibleng makapagbigay ng pag-uulan during the forecast period (Based on the climatological track, either it may enter the Philippine area of responsibility, it may recurve and possibly won't bring rains, or it depends on the timing if there will be southwest monsoon or habagat, the tropical cyclone may enhance the southwest monsoon, which may bring rains during the forecast period)," Solid said.