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Manila Bulletin devider Philippines devider National devider PAGASA observes 'increasing odds' for La Niña's return by mid-2024

PAGASA observes 'increasing odds' for La Niña's return by mid-2024

Published Feb 27, 2024 07:42 am

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Tuesday,  Feb. 27 said there are "increasing odds" of La Niña occurring in the June-July-August period.

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(Ali Vicoy/ Manila Bulletin file photo)

PAGASA-Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Officer-in-Charge Ana Liza Solis said the La Niña is more than 55 percent likely to occur in the next six months.

The recent La Niña event was in 2020 to 2023

"Unti-unting nag-iincrease iyong probability of having La Niña more than 50 percent during June-July-August," (The probability of having La Niña gradually increase at more than 50 percent)," Solis said during the PAGASA’s Climate Forum on Tuesday.

Solis projected a "weak" El Niño in March-April-May, followed by a 79 percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions, where neither El Niño nor La Niña prevails, in April-May-June.

The country is currently experiencing a “strong” El Niño.

However, she added that a below-normal rainfall condition may still be felt in parts of the country in the pre-developing stage of La Niña.

"Historically, during pre-developing La Niña ay maaaring mayroon pa ring possible na below-normal rainfall condition, so that is why napaka-critical ng May and June for El Niño to decay and La Niña to be developed (Historically, during pre-developing La Niña, there may still be below-normal rainfall condition so that is why May and June will be critical for El Niño to decay and La Niña to be developed)," she said. 

With that, Solis said the rainy season could be delayed.

"Lahat na ng chaotic climate na possible is critical sa May and June dahil baka ma-delay pa iyong ating tag-ulan (All possible chaotic climate is critical in May and June, as the rainy season may be delayed)," Solid said. 

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La Niña PAGASA
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