Although El Niño’s “mature stage” may end this month, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned on Friday, Feb. 23 that the climate phenomenon’s effects may continue in the coming months.

“Nasa mature El Niño [stage tayo ngayon], which is about to end ‘yung mature stage niya ngayong February 2024. Pagdating ng March, April, May, still meron tayong El Niño but then it will start to decay (We are currently in the mature stage of El Niño, but it is about to end this February 2024. El Niño may still persist in March, April, and May, but then it will start to decay),”PAGASA-Climate and Agrometeorology Division Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Liza Solis said in a televised public briefing.

Solis explained that when the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean reaches its maximum, El Niño enters its mature stage. 

However, the mature stage will also end when the sea surface begins to cool.

She said that despite the possibility that El Niño will begin to wane, the country will still feel its impact due to its “extension” or “lag effect.”

“Although pagdating May-June may pag-uulan na tayo but then hindi ‘yung inaasahan nating ganun karami pa na ulan na matatanggap natin (Even though we expect rains in May and June, the amount we will receive will still not be what we used to have),” Solis said.

“Dagdag pa diyan ang medyo iinit pa na temperatura, kaya kailangan din natin pag tuunan ang health measures (Furthermore, since it will continue to be a little warmer, we also need to pay attention to some health precautions),” she added.

Based on PAGASA’s monitoring, the El Niño may still affect at least 80 provinces, “possibly causing drought, dry spells, or dry conditions,” she also said.

A dry spell is defined as three successive months of below-normal rainfall or two consecutive months of “way below-normal” rainfall, while a dry condition is defined as two consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall.

Meanwhile, drought is defined as a prolonged dry condition characterized by five consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall or three consecutive months of “way below-normal” rainfall.