THE VIEW FROM RIZAL

Are we gearing up for an all-out conflict over West Philippine Sea issues?

This was the question we heard our friends and colleagues in the local government sector ask over the weekend. Their question comes on the heels of recent developments concerning the West Philippine Sea and actions taken by our national government to address them.

The apparent anxiety seems to have been triggered by statements from three of our respected national officials.

First, Defense Secretary Gibo Teodoro, while visiting Batanes province, said he wants a heightened military presence in the northernmost part of our country. Second, Philippine Army Chief Lt. Gen. Roy Galido, sounded the call for our “fellow Filipinos to be a patriot and be a (military) reservist,” directing the invitation primarily to the residents of Batanes. Third, National Security Adviser Eduardo Año announced that there will be “more frequent patrols by the Philippine Coast Guard and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources” in the waters of the West Philippine Sea.

Are these preparations for an all-out conflict?

We hope that they are not. Our view is that the national government must continue to look for peaceful ways to resolve the row. Our call is for our defense and military officials to make clear to our countrymen what the game plan is and to let us know what our role in the plan may be, if any.

Local governments, as well as the rest of the public, take the signal from the diplomatic policy set by the national government. This is especially true for the situation in the West Philippine Sea. During the administration of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the signal was that the relationship with other major players was one of “cordiality and cooperation.”

The tone, situation, and signals changed during the administration of the late former President Noynoy Aquino. During his term, the signal shifted to “escalating tension to the conflict,” at least in the legal sense. We are aware that during that period, our naval forces had stand-offs with their counterpart from the chief protagonist in the West Philippine Sea row.

The tone and signals returned to “cordiality” during the administration of former President Rodrigo Duterte.

At this point, from the perspective of the local government sector, there has been no clear signal yet from the national leadership. Recent developments may indicate that we are back to a situation called “escalating tension.” We do not know if the escalation of tension is part of a national strategy. We do not know if this is a direction our country is deliberately taking.

The public is better off not making speculations or unfounded assumptions. We must wait for clarification from the proper sources.

There are indications that, despite the apparent tension, West Philippine Sea issues are not at the center stage of public consciousness.

Interestingly, these issues were not even in the top 40 trending topics in X (formerly Twitter). Over the weekend, we did not see social media posts about these issues, except for the news alerts posted by media outfits. In other words, it is possible that our countrymen are not even talking about the possibility of an all-out conflict with other countries in the West Philippine Sea.

Is this a sign that most of us may have become indifferent to what is happening in the West Philippine Sea?
If true, then this is worrisome. This is an indication that many of us may not be aware or do not feel that we have an important stake in what happens in that part of our national territory.

Our view is that we all have two important shared interests here: our future and our foundations as a nation. The level of our freedom to navigate our territorial waters and to tap the wealth of marine resources there will define our future. Any restriction on that freedom will affect our national economy and the quality of life that our children will have. Any diminution in our territory as a result of the encroachment or occupation of external forces is inimical to our sense of sovereignty, identity, and national pride.

There is a lot at stake for us in whatever happens in the West Philippine Sea.

The way things look, many of us may not have appreciated the size of that stake.

Perhaps, our leaders in the military and national security sectors should address that matter, too. It appears they may have to first win over our own countrymen before we can win in an all-out conflict in the West Philippine Sea.

It would also be interesting to find out whether or not our neighboring countries find a stake in stability and lasting peace in the body of water we share with them. Unless they become authentic stakeholders in the quest for a real solution, we are concerned that prolonged tension may be inevitable.