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Renewable energy transition in Philippine to cause minimal disruption

Oxford Economics report

Published Feb 19, 2024 09:48 am

The Philippines' move towards renewable energy is expected to cause less disruption in electricity prices compared to other Southeast Asian countries, a study conducted by Oxford Economics showed.

In a report, Oxford Economics said that the increase in energy prices in the Philippines during its transition to renewable sources will be "limited," despite the country's heavy reliance on coal for energy and its high electricity demand.

Among the so-called "ASEAN5 countries," the Philippines and Singapore exhibit lower initial costs, the Oxford Economics indicated.

“The Philippines experiences a limited rise in energy prices despite its high reliance on coal for energy and electricity demand,” said Oxford Economics in its report titled "ASEAN: The Costs and Long-Term Gains of Seamless Decarbonization.”

“Its low energy intensity means it doesn't require as much energy to produce output as other economies such as Thailand and Malaysia,” the report added.

The Philippine economy, which has the second-lowest carbon emissions per unit of output after Singapore, can achieve 85 percent industry electrification by 2050, according to estimates by Oxford Economics.

The findings of the report, however, may not come as a surprise, given that Singapore already has the highest power rates, followed by the Philippines, among ASEAN economies.

The Philippines is now aiming to raise the proportion of renewable energy in its power mix to 35 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2040, up from the current 22 percent.

“Our modelling suggests the shift to net zero will initially bring adverse economic impacts through higher energy costs, but benefits will accrue eventually from the positive spillovers from investment,” Oxford Economics said.

The Philippines is now aiming to raise the proportion of renewable energy in its power mix to 35% by 2030 and 50 percent by 2040, up from the current 22 percent.

The escalation in energy costs stemmed from a surge in the prices of metals and minerals, driven by heightened demand for these resources as part of a concerted push towards green investment.

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