After a streak of increasing prices over the holidays, fuel prices are expected to ease before the start of the new year.
Analysts expect that by next week, gasoline prices could drop by P0.30 to P0.60 per liter, while diesel prices could fall by P0.20 to P0.55 per liter. Kerosene could also see a potential rollback of P0.80 to P0.90 per liter.
The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB) attributed the expected price decreases to a potential oversupply in the oil market by 2025, despite the OPEC+ delay in production.
“This estimated adjustment is triggered by the IEA’s continued expectation of an oversupplied oil market in 2025,” said OIMB Director Rodela Romero.
Additionally, Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas cited concerns raised by the United States Federal Reserve about a possible slowdown in demand for oil next year.
“[There is a] cautious stance by the US Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates in 2025, which also weighed on oil prices due to concerns that weak economic activity in the US could slow demand next year,” he stated.
Bellas also said that the price discounts may not be as significant as anticipated, possibly due to expectations of a drop in US crude stockpiles and increased government spending in China, which support oil prices.
Analysts remain positive that next week could see a marginal discount in oil prices, as further upward price pressure has been limited by an increase in stockpiles of gasoline and diesel in some regions, despite the significant decline in exports from China and limited output from India and South Korea.
This week, gasoline prices were raised by P0.50 per liter, while diesel prices increased by P1.45 per liter.