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Manila Bulletin devider Business devider US tariffs to bring Asian economies to 'turmoil'—Japan think tank

US tariffs to bring Asian economies to 'turmoil'—Japan think tank

Published Dec 24, 2024 07:46 am

Anticipated US tariffs to be imposed by President-elect Donald J. Trump when he returns to the White House next year may bring "turmoil" to Asian economies, according to the think tank Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER).

"The trade war initiated by the United States is expected to put downward pressure on the global economy. In the baseline scenario, we assume that the US will deport 1.3 million unauthorized immigrants in 2025 and impose 60-percent tariffs on China and 10 percent on other countries and regions," JCER said in its Medium-Term Forecast of Asian Economies report last Dec. 18.

The Trump 2.0 administration's plan to mass deport undocumented migrants could affect up to 300,000 Filipinos in America.

JCER said Trump's tariffs and deportation plans would "slow down slightly" the American economy, while warning that the Chinese economy is expected to "take a big hit" next year.

"The US real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is expected to fall below two percent in 2025 due to a labor force decline caused by the deportation of unauthorized immigrants, but the impact will be relatively limited. Meanwhile, China's real GDP growth rate will slow to the three-percent range in 2025 due to a decline in exports caused by the high tariffs imposed by the US," JCER explained.

"To mitigate these risks, it is essential for countries and regions outside the US and China to maintain free trade systems," JCER said.

JCER's latest medium-term forecasts covered 18 Asia-Pacific countries, including the Philippines, for the 12-year period of 2024 to 2035.

Based on graphs reflecting JCER's forecasts, Philippine GDP growth in the next 12 years would remain in the six-percent level, outpacing annual expansion in its Southeast Asian neighbors Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and even Vietnam.

The Philippines also slightly improved its ranking in JCER's Digital Potential Index to 68th out of 84 countries in 2023 from 69th in 2022, the report noted.

JCER's annual Digital Potential Index "measures a country's potential to promote digital transformation—a key driver of economic growth" as well as productivity, it explained.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines was below the rankings of Singapore (second place), Malaysia (36th), Thailand (47th), Vietnam (55th) and Indonesia (65th), which overtook the Philippines in the 2023 index.

Cambodia ranked 80th; Laos, 82nd; and Myanmar, cellar-dweller at 84th place.

The Philippines ranked higher in two areas: human capital/research and development (R&D), a jump to 63rd place from 75th previously; as well as information technology (IT)-related industries, to 57th from 58th.

However, the Philippines' position slipped in also two areas: business environment, to 51st from 50th place; and infrastructure, to 75th from 74th previously.

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