President Marcos' economic managers have revised their growth projections for this year and adjusted their outlook for the following years amid global uncertainties.
Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman said in a statement that the country’s economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), is expected to grow between 6.0 percent and 6.5 percent in 2024.
The new DBCC forecast represents a narrower range than the previous projection of 6.0 percent to 7.0 percent.
In the first three quarters of this year, the economy expanded by 5.8 percent.
To achieve the lower end of the new range, the economy would need to grow by 6.6 percent in the final quarter of the year. Conversely, reaching the upper end of the target would require growth of 8.6 percent during the same period.
The updated growth assumption was approved by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) on Monday, Dec. 2.
“Despite domestic challenges, we are optimistic that we can still attain our growth target for the year of 6.0 to 6.5 percent,” said Pangandaman, chairperson of the DBCC, an inter-agency body tasked to set the government's macroeconomic assumptions.
“In particular, we expect the Philippine economy to bounce back during the last quarter, given the anticipated increase in holiday spending, continued disaster recovery efforts, low inflation, and a robust labor market,” she added.
The DBCC also revisited the country’s medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, projecting a wider growth band of 6.0 percent to 8.0 percent for 2025 to 2028.
Pangandaman noted that these projections reflect anticipated structural reforms and the potential impact of global uncertainties.
Meanwhile, the economic managers vowed to keep inflation in check after it averaged 3.3 percent for the first 10 months of 2024, lower than the previous year's 6.0 percent.
Pangandaman attributed this improvement to government efforts, including reductions in rice import tariffs, increased agricultural production, and broad-based measures responding to favorable supply conditions in the global market.
The government maintains an inflation assumption of 2.0 to 4.0 percent for 2025 to 2028.
In terms of crude oil prices, the DBCC has slightly narrowed its expectations for 2024 to USD 78 to 81 per barrel, down from an earlier estimate of USD 70 to 85 per barrel.
Over the medium term, assumptions for oil prices have been reduced to USD 60 to 80 per barrel, reflecting projected improvements in global production.
The Philippine peso is also expected to stabilize around P57.00 to P57.50 against the US dollar this year, with projections for further stability in the following years.
External trade figures were revised as well; the growth forecast for goods exports in 2024 has been adjusted down to 4.0 percent, aligning with recent trends in the semiconductor industry.
Meanwhile, goods imports are expected to maintain a growth trajectory of 2.0 percent due to steady domestic consumption.