Determined to ensure the stability of the price of rice at the retail level, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel has been doing the rounds of Kadiwa ng Pangulo kiosks where the staple is selling at ₱40 per kilo.

This comes on the heels of latest projections made by the US Department of Agriculture. The USDA  eyes a looming increase in rice imports, spurred by production declines caused by La Niña and a series of natural disasters that have hit the country’s rice-producing areas, drastically reducing yields at a time when demand is on the rise. This confluence of factors presents not only economic but also social ramifications, particularly for the lowest income classes, who are most vulnerable to price hikes and food insecurity.

According to the USDA, the Philippines is set to become the world’s largest rice importer for three consecutive marketing years. This marks a troubling shift, as the country moves from a self-sufficient producer to a net importer, relying increasingly on foreign rice to meet domestic demand. While rice imports have historically played a role in balancing supply shortages, the sheer scale of expected imports — projected at around 5.4 million metric tons in 2024-2025 — highlights the growing gap between production and consumption.
This gap is widening due to a surge in rice consumption. Rice is a staple in the Filipino diet, and for many, it is the primary source of sustenance. From 14.8 million metric tons (MT) in 2020-2021, rice consumption in the Philippines is expected to rise to 17.4 million MT in the 2024-2025 marketing year. This increase is driven by several factors, including population growth, changing dietary habits, and the socio-economic realities faced by millions of Filipinos. As consumption continues to climb, the supply side struggles to keep pace, further exacerbating the need for imports.

Rice is not just a food item. It’s a cornerstone of economic stability for many Filipino families. The lowest-income classes, particularly those living in rural areas where rice is grown, are most exposed to the fluctuating prices and availability of the commodity. Typhoons and extreme weather events have already driven up production costs, and now the anticipated increase in imports will likely push domestic rice prices higher due to a combination of market dynamics and logistical challenges.

The impact on low-income families could be devastating. With rising rice prices, these households will spend an even larger proportion of their income on food. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, food accounts for more than 40 percent of household expenditure among the lowest 30 percent of income earners. A rise in rice prices would, therefore, have an outsized effect on their purchasing power, further entrenching poverty and inequality. With cheaper imports flooding the market, many small-scale rice farmers are likely to be pushed into even deeper poverty.

To mitigate the impact of these changes, the government must adopt more comprehensive measures. First, improving domestic rice production through investments in irrigation, farming technology, and disaster-resilient crops could help reduce the need for imports in the future. Second, addressing the rising cost of rice through targeted subsidies or price controls can help protect the most vulnerable populations from the worst effects of inflation. Lastly, creating more robust social safety nets for farmers, including income support and disaster relief, would provide a cushion against market volatility.