WASHINGTON, D.C. — Experts are seeing better prospects for trade under the administration of president-elect Donald J. Trump.
“I think for countries that are interested in trade agreements, there is a better prospect under the future Trump administration for concluding trade deals,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president and managing director of Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI).
Trump, she said, is transactional and this was seen during his first term as president.
“He did pursue trade agreements and he concluded a number of trade agreements, including the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement and the US-Japan Agreement,” she added.
Cutler said there is also a big focus, not only in the Biden-Harris administration, but also among Trump’s people on the need to diversify the US supply chains to reduce reliance on China for imports for sourcing products.
“And so, for our other Asian trading partners, I think this will offer a lot of opportunities,” she said, as the US continues to look elsewhere in Asia to diversify its supply chains.
Cutler also cited several areas of concern that the US’ trading partners in Asia should try to address or prepare for.
First is the ability of the US’ partners in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to navigate between the US and China.
“I know already that for a number of ASEAN countries, this has been a challenge and some are better at it than the others, “ she said.
Cutler also said that Trump prefers bilateral negotiations, bilateral arrangements, and he focuses on bilateral trade deficits.
“And a number of ASEAN countries had seen a significant increase in their trade deficit and trade surplus with the US to the extent that he imposes tariffs and there will be a lot of pressure on those countries with the largest trade deficits,” she added.
“The Philippines does not have a big deficit and it could be a country that might have a more positive story to tell,” said Shay Wester, ASPI director of Asian Economic Affairs and outreach director.
Cutler believes that the new Trump administration will have more focus on Making America Great Again by bringing jobs back to America, particularly manufacturing jobs, and less interest in working with its allies and partners which has been the distinguishing and important feature of the Biden-Harris administration.
“Our trading partners need to be very prepared in terms of how they are going to respond to overtures from the White House - they may be in the form of tariffs or trade negotiations,” she said.
Cutler said she expects the imposition of tariffs in the initial period of the Trump administration.
“There’s a lot of tariff proposals but I think he is quite serious about imposing a 10 to 20 percent universal tariff as well as an additional 60 percent tariff on imports from China,” she added.
Andreyka Natalegawa, associate fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the US-Philippine relations are becoming “increasingly stable” to institutionalize the aspects of the alliance over the long term.
“US relations with the Philippines remain in a pretty bright spot,” he said.