FINDING ANSWERS
It’s Election Day in the United States, and the race for the White House remains exceptionally tight between Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republican Party’s Donald Trump.
Latest and final surveys indicate a neck-and-neck contest in battleground states, leaving voters and pundits wondering: Will this election mark the breaking of the proverbial “glass ceiling” with the victory of the first-ever woman president of the US?
The first time the so-called glass ceiling was expected to be shattered was in 2016. That year, the political landscape seemed poised for history-making as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was widely expected to win. Nearly all major polls indicated a solid Clinton lead then, fueling expectation the glass ceiling would finally be shattered.
But it was not to be. As results came in on election night, it became obvious pollsters have gotten it so wrong, leaving Clinton supporters devastated as Trump clinched a stunning upset victory. The mood at a New York convention center where they gathered shifted dramatically — from glee to gloom. It was like a wedding quickly turning into a funeral.
In her concession speech, a visibly heartbroken Clinton acknowledged the unbroken glass barrier, saying, “I know we have still not shattered that highest and hardest glass ceiling, but someday, someone will, and hopefully sooner than we might think right now.”
Is that someone Kamala Harris? And is that someday today, Nov. 5 (tonight and tomorrow in the US)?
Many US voters, especially Filipino-Americans, hope the glass ceiling would be shattered, finally. According to a recent survey by the Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote organization, 68 percent of Filipino-American voters are inclined to support Harris, with only 28 percent favoring Trump.
Another national survey, conducted by the reputable Pew Research Center on more than 7,000 Asian adults in the US of which 1,051 were Fil-Ams, showed similar results: 68 percent of the 2.7 million Fil-Ams eligible to vote are leaning toward Harris, while 31 percent are for Trump.
Harris has garnered much-coveted endorsement from a wide array of celebrities and influential figures led by global music sensation Taylor Swift who said in an Instagram post to her 283 million followers: “I will be casting may vote for Kamala Harris… I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos.”
Other prominent supporters that have sustained the momentum of the Harris campaign include music artists Beyoncé, Jennifer Lopez, Eminem, Cardi B, Bon Jovi, Bruce Springsteen, TV host Oprah Winfrey, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and NBA superstar LeBron James.
Keeping hopes alive that a woman will finally rise to the pinnacle of success in US politics after more than two centuries is the prediction of Allan Lichtman, an American University history professor renowned for his accurate predictions of nine out of the past 10 US presidential elections since 1984.
He has forecast a win for Harris using his unique “Keys to the White House” system. Developed in 1981, Lichtman’s system predicts presidential election outcomes based on 13 key indicators rather than traditional polling methods.
On the other side, Trump’s prominent supporters include former wrestler Hulk Hogan, rapper Ye (Kanye West), actors Mel Gibson and Jon Voight, and the world’s richest man, Elon Musk.
Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) ardent followers are fervently hoping their idol wins to drastically alter the immediate future of the former President. Trump, who faces a Nov. 26 sentencing for 34 felony convictions related to falsifying business records, seems desperate for a poll victory to stay out of jail and get relief on pending criminal cases.
On the campaign trail crisscrossing swing states, the two candidates have exchanged warnings of gloomy consequences resulting from an opponent’s win as they tussled over raging issues — the economy, future of democracy, reproductive health care, immigration and border control.
Whether Harris prevails or Trump makes a stunning comeback, the outcome of the US election has far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences for the Philippines, Southeast Asia, the Indo-Pacific region, and the rest of the world, especially because the US remains the world’s greatest military power and largest economy.
A Harris victory could spur more trade and economic development, improved security partnerships, and climate change cooperation as the US renews its commitment to multilateralism. A Trump win could lead to protectionist trade measures as the “America First” policy is brought back, and a shift in regional security arrangements towards a transactional approach.
Specifically, their divergent views on tariffs would have profound impact on world economy. Trump wants to implement higher tariff rates, as much as 60 percent on goods from China, and 10 to 20 percent on goods from all other countries. Harris does not want broad across-the-board tariffs, arguing that these would lead to inflation that would have a ripple effect the world over.
The US presidential election may lead to more stability or more uncertainty, depending on the outcome. But what is undoubtedly very interesting is the possibility of the proverbial glass ceiling being shattered in our lifetime. ([email protected])