For the first time since 1951, the Philippines experienced a record-breaking event in November 2024, with four tropical cyclones simultaneously active in the Western Pacific, confirmed the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday, Nov. 20.
In a climate forum, PAGASA Weather Specialist Kristel Anne Valerie Villasica explained that the four back-to-back tropical cyclones—two typhoons and two super typhoons—surpassed the previous record of three active tropical cyclones, which occurred in November 1968.
During that year, storms Mamie, Nina, and Ora were active from Nov. 22 to 24.
This month, the country was hit by Typhoon Marce (Yinxing) from Nov. 4 to 8; Typhoon Nika (Toraji) from Nov. 9 to 12; Super Typhoon Ofel (Usagi) from Nov. 12 to 15; and Super Typhoon Pepito (Man-yi) from Nov. 14 to 18.
Why cyclones occurred in quick succession
Villasica explained that tropical cyclones form when specific environmental conditions are present, such as warm ocean waters, high humidity, and favorable atmospheric conditions.
She added that these elements contribute to the cyclone’s development and intensification.
Villasica further explained that warm ocean temperatures, usually above 26.5 degrees Celsius (°C), provide the energy necessary for the formation of cyclones, while high humidity supplies the moisture required for cloud formation.
In addition, the low-pressure systems at the center of cyclones intensify winds, further fueling the cyclone's growth.
She pointed out that in the weeks leading up to the record event, ocean temperatures around the Philippines ranged from 28°C to 30°C, which is well above the threshold.
“This is the main reason that fueled the series of tropical cyclones,” Villasica said.
“The environment was generally favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification for the past weeks,” she added.
‘La Niña-like’ conditions
PAGASA-Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Liza Solis said the “La Niña-like” conditions in the Pacific Ocean played a significant role in the behavior of the recent cyclones.
Solis said a La Niña alert is still in effect, with most climate models, and expert judgments predicting a “short-lived” La Niña (74 percent likelihood) from November 2024 to January 2025, which may persist into the first quarter of 2025.
Although a full La Niña event has not yet fully developed, she explained that the persistent La Niña-like conditions are contributing to the warming of sea surface temperatures near the Philippines, which is causing the formation of a higher-than-usual number of cyclones.
Solis also said that the current climate conditions are affecting the behavior of other rain-bearing weather systems in the country.
READ MORE: https://mb.com.ph/2024/11/20/pagasa-1-or-2-cyclones-may-form-enter-par-in-december#google_vignette