As Tropical Storm “Ofel” (international name: Usagi) continues to weaken while slowly moving over the Sea West of Taiwan, Typhoon “Pepito” (international name: Man-yi) is intensifying and nearing the super typhoon category.
In its 5 a.m. tropical cyclone bulletin issued on Saturday, Nov. 16, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the center of “Ofel” was estimated to be 240 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes. It has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 90 km/h, moving slowly north-northeastward.
Meanwhile, the center of “Pepito” was estimated to be 220 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar, or 305 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar. It was moving west-northwestward at 25 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center and gusts of up to 215 km/h.
Weather update
PAGASA said “Pepito” and “Ofel” are expected to bring rain and cloudy skies to most parts of the country.
“Pepito” will bring stormy weather to the Bicol Region, Samar, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar, with rains and gusty winds in Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Marinduque, and Romblon.
Cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms are expected in Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Pampanga, Bulacan, and the rest of the Visayas due to the trough of “Pepito.”
“Ofel” will bring cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms in Batanes and the Babuyan Islands, while partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms are expected in the rest of the country due to localized thunderstorms.
‘Pepito’ to bring heavy rains
While “Ofel” is not expected to bring significant rainfall, PAGASA has issued a heavy rainfall outlook for the coming days due to “Pepito.”
In a separate advisory, intense to torrential rains are expected in Catanduanes, Quezon, and Aurora; heavy to intense rains in Camarines Sur, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Camarines Norte, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, and Pangasinan; and moderate to heavy rains are expected in Camarines Norte, Albay, Sorsogon, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, Masbate, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Bataan, Pampanga, Marinduque, Cagayan, Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, Benguet, La Union, Tarlac, Zambales, and Ilocos Sur.
Storm surge and gale warnings
PAGASA warned of a “high risk of life-threatening storm surge” with peak heights exceeding 3.0 meters in the next 48 hours over low-lying or exposed coastal areas in Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Bicol Region, Marinduque, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Cavite, Batangas, Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Isabela, and the Ilocos Region due to “Pepito.”
A Gale Warning has been hoisted over the eastern and southern seaboard of Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of the Visayas.
PAGASA advised mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels to “take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.”
‘Pepito’s’ track and intensity outlook
PAGASA said “Pepito” to move generally west-northwestward within the next three days before turning westward to west-southwestward from Nov. 18 (Monday) evening to Nov. 20 (Thursday) early morning.
Based on the track forecast, PAGASA said “Pepito” is “more likely to make landfall” in the vicinity of Catanduanes tonight or early tomorrow morning.
“However, considering the limits of the forecast confidence cone, a landfall scenario over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur, Albay, or Sorsogon during the same timeframe, or along the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora tomorrow afternoon or evening remains possible,” PAGASA said.
By Nov. 18, PAGASA expects “Pepito” to exit the country’s area of responsibility.
PAGASA further noted that “Pepito” will continue to “intensify today and may reach super typhoon strength within the next few hours before landfall tonight or early tomorrow morning.”
“Although slight weakening may occur after its initial passage over land, much of the weakening will occur tomorrow as 'Pepito' passes over Central Luzon," PAGASA added. "Nevertheless, it will traverse the country as a typhoon and is likely to be downgraded to a severe tropical storm once it is over the West Philippine Sea on Monday."
Wind signals
PAGASA noted that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted during the occurrence of "Pepito" is Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 5.
Several areas in Luzon are currently under Signal No. 3, including Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Tiwi, Malinao), the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, San Jose, Garchitorena, Lagonoy, Sagñay, Tigaon, Goa), and the easternmost portion of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz).
Signal No. 3 was also raised in some areas in the Visayas, including the eastern portion of Northern Samar (Palapag, Laoang, Mapanas, Gamay, Lapinig, Catubig, Pambujan) and the northernmost portion of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Arteche, Oras, Jipapad).
PAGASA said winds of greater than 89 km/h and up to 117 km/h may be expected in these areas for at least 18 hours.
Signal No. 2 was also raised in the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, the rest of Sorsogon, Ticao Island, Camarines Norte, the easternmost portion of mainland Quezon (Tagkawayan), Pollilo Islands, and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Dolores, Maslog, Can-Avid, Taft, Sulat, San Julian, City of Borongan), the northern portion of Samar (Matuguinao, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Tarangnan, Motiong, Gandara, Jiabong, City of Catbalogan, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Pagsanghan), and the rest of Northern Samar.
Winds of greater than 62 km/h and up to 88 km/h may be expected in these areas for at least 24 hours, PAGASA said.
Meanwhile, the rest of Masbate, including Burias Island, Marinduque, Romblon, the rest of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Isabela, the central and southern portions of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Solana, Iguig, Tuao, Rizal, Santo Niño, Lasam, Gattaran, Baggao, Amulung, Alcala, Piat, Lal-Lo, Allacapan), Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Abra, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner, Kabugao, Pudtol, Flora), Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Samar, Biliran, the northern and central portions of Leyte (Tunga, Pastrana, San Miguel, Matag-Ob, Tolosa, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Mayorga, Julita, Carigara, Babatngon, Dagami, Jaro, San Isidro, Santa Fe, Albuera, Villaba, La Paz, Palompon, Macarthur, Tabontabon, Tanauan, Merida, Ormoc City, Isabel, Dulag, Capoocan, Alangalang, Burauen, Tabango, Tacloban City, Kananga, Barugo, Abuyog, Javier, City of Baybay, Mahaplag), the northeastern portion of Southern Leyte (Silago), the northernmost portion of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin) including Bantayan Islands, and the northernmost portion of Iloilo (Carles), as well as Mindanao and the northern portion of Dinagat Islands (Loreto, Tubajon), are under Signal No. 1.