The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has placed parts of Cagayan and Isabela under Signal No. 2 as Typhoon “Ofel” (international name: Usagi) moved closer to eastern Luzon.

As of 10 a.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 13, the center of Ofel was located 485 kilometers east-northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte, or 610 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon.

The typhoon maintained maximum winds of 120 kilometers per hour (kph) near its center and gusts reaching 150 kph.

In its 11 a.m. bulletin, PAGASA has raised Signal No. 2 over the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Baggao, Peñablanca, Gattaran, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Santa Ana) and eastern part of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan).

This signifies a “minor to moderate” threat to life and property in areas under Signal No. 2.

Meanwhile, Signal No. 1 remains in effect over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, eastern Ifugao (Dilasag, Casiguran), Ilocos Norte, and northern portion of Aurora (Alfonso Lista, Aguinaldo, Banaue, Mayoyao, Hingyon, Hungduan).

Areas under Signal No. 1 may experience “minimal to minor impacts” from strong winds.

PAGASA said the highest wind warning that may be raised during the passage of Ofel is Signal No. 4.

Forecast track

PAGASA said Ofel will continue to move west-northwest to northwestward over the Philippine Sea before making landfall along the eastern coast of Cagayan or Isabela on Thursday afternoon, Nov. 14. 

It could also continue to intensify over the next 24 hours and could make landfall at its peak intensity.

“The typhoon is threatening areas previously affected by Typhoon Nika (Toraji). Yesterday (Nov. 12), Typhoon Nika exited, but now we are monitoring another storm. I hope the communities in Northern and Central Luzon are prepared for the impacts of Ofel, especially as many areas are still flooded, particularly in Cagayan and Isabela,” PAGASA Deputy Administrator for Research and Development Marcelino Villafuerte II said in Filipino in a press conference on Wednesday.

PAGASA added that the track of Ofel could still change in the coming days, with two possible scenarios: the storm will continue northwestward until Friday, Nov. 15, before turning west-southwestward over the weekend, or will slightly “recurve” to the right of the current forecast track that is offshore of Northern Luzon.

PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief Chris Perez said that if the storm shifts slightly northward, it will track more toward Batanes, while a southward shift would bring it closer to Isabela.

While the exact landfall point remains uncertain, Perez warned that areas outside the forecast cone could still experience significant hazards, particularly along coastal waters and in regions that may be affected by the typhoon’s outer bands. 

Rainfall outlook

PAGASA warned of moderate to heavy rains (50 to 100 millimeters over Isabela and Cagayan on Wednesday, but rainfall may become intense to torrential (over 200 millimeters) by Thursday.

On Thursday, heavy to intense rains (100 to 200 millimeters) could also affect Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Abra, Batanes, Kalinga, Mountain Province, and Ifugao, while moderate to heavy rainfall (50 to 100 millimeters) may prevail over Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Quirino, and Ilocos Sur.

These conditions could lead to flooding and landslides, particularly in areas highly susceptible to such hazards and those with significant previous rainfall, PAGASA warned.

Storm ‘Pepito’

Meanwhile, PAGASA is also monitoring the Tropical Storm with an international name “Man-yi,” as it is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday evening.

Once inside, it will be named “Pepito.” 

As of 10 a.m. on Wednesday, the center of Man-yi was located 1,965 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas, with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph and gusts reaching 80 kph. 

The storm is moving west-southwestward at 30 kph and may reach typhoon strength by Thursday.

On its forecast track, PAGASA said the storm could make landfall over the eastern coast of Luzon by Saturday or Sunday, Nov. 16 or 17.

However, Perez said a landfall over Eastern Visayas has not been ruled out.

This could bring potentially hazardous sea conditions over the eastern seaboard of the country starting Friday or Saturday. 

“The storm could make a close approach or landfall over the Bicol Region or Eastern Visayas this weekend, then move across Central Luzon. Given this forecast track, there is also a possibility that Pepito may affect Northern and Central Luzon,” Perez said.