The Philippines must be one step ahead of whatever policy shifts that United States President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to implement once in office, Senate President Francis "Chiz" Escudero said.
As early as now, Escudero said the government should start “drawing up scenarios in the Trump era and preparing a response to each.”
“Donald Trump is a major macroeconomic assumption,” Escudero said, referring to premises government use in forecasting economic performance in a fiscal year.
“From trade to security to immigration, what he said he plans to do, some on day one of his administration, would certainly impact us,” Escudero said.
Escudero warned that if Trump pushes through with his pronouncement to carry out the greatest mass deportation in US history an estimated 300,000 vulnerable Filipinos could be affected by the first wave of expulsion.
Even if only one percent of the 300,000 would be removed from the American soil, the senator said it would require 10 big airplanes.
“How will his plan to erect high tariff walls affect our economy given the fact that almost $1 in every $7 of our export earnings come from our trade with the United States?” Escudero raised.
“Kung dahil sa kanya lalakas ang dolyar, ano ang epekto nito sa atin kung ang dulot nito ay ang paghina ng piso? Siguradong lolobo ang halaga ng ating foreign debt (If because of him the dollar will strengthen, what effect will it have on us if it causes the peso to weaken? The value of our foreign debt will definitely go up)," the Senate leader pointed out.
Trump’s proposed pivot on the diplomatic front will reduce global tensions and settle wars, but "these wins will still impact our fiscal position," he said.
“The inconvenient truth is cheaper oil will reduce tax collections on oil upon which government spending on social programs is pegged," Escudero said.
Escudero also said it would be best for the Philippine government to revisit the country's military alliance with the US.
“On the security front, will a second Trump administration be hawkish or dovish against China? Dapat handa tayo kung sakaling may bagong posisyon ang Washington (We must be ready in case Washington takes a new position),” the Bicolano lawmaker said.
"There is no reason for the Philippine government to be caught flatfooted and stand helpless as the ground beneath it caves in," he pointed out.