The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has not ruled out the possibility that Severe Tropical Storm “Leon” (international name: Kong-rey) could intensify into a super typhoon. If this happens, Wind Signal No. 5 may be issued as it approaches extreme Northern Luzon.

In its 11 p.m. bulletin on Monday, Oct. 28, PAGASA reported that Leon has maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 100 kilometers per hour (kph) near its center and gusts reaching 125 kph as it meanders over the Philippine Sea. 

PAGASA said Leon could become a typhoon within the next 12 hours, with an increasing likelihood of intensifying into a super typhoon as it approaches Batanes.

While Leon is currently moving generally toward Taiwan, there is an increasing chance of a westward shift in its forecast track, though it remains within the confidence cone. As a result, PAGASA said a landfall or a close approach to Batanes cannot be ruled out.

As of 10 p.m., the center of the eye of Leon was located 705 kilometers east of Echague, Isabela.

Due to its anticipated strong winds, Signal No. 1 remains in effect in Batanes, Cagayan (including Babuyan Islands), Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao,  northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Kibungan, Atok, Bokod, Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan), Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands (General Nakar, Infanta, Real), Camarines Norte, eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion, Tigaon, Calabanga, Saglay), Catanduanes, eastern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Tiwi, Malilipot, Malinao, Santo Domingo, Manito), northeastern portion of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz, City of Sorsogon, Gubat), eastern portion of Northern Samar (San Roque, Pambujan, Catubig, Laoang, Palapag, Gamay, Lapinig, Mapanas, Mondragon), and northern portion of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo).

During Leon's passage, PAGASA said the highest wind signals that may be issued are Signal No. 3 or 4, especially in extreme Northern Luzon. 

If it intensifies into a super typhoon, it said that raising Signal No. 5 is also a possibility.

Heavy rainfall outlook

Based on PAGASA’s three-day rainfall forecast, moderate to torrential rains may impact several areas, particularly inLuzon.

From Monday evening to Tuesday evening, Oct. 29, heavy to intense rainfall (100 to 200 millimeters) may be felt in Cagayan and Babuyan Islands, while moderate to heavy rainfall (50 to 100 millimeters) may affect Batanes, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Isabela, Calamian Islands, Occidental Mindoro, Negros Occidental, and Antique.

From Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening, Oct. 30, Batanes, Cagayan, and Babuyan Islands may receive intense totorrential rainfall (over 200 millimeters).

Heavy to intense rainfall is expected in Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Occidental Mindoro, and Antique, while moderate to heavy rainfall may prevail over Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Abra, Calamian Islands, Romblon, Negros Occidental, and Aklan.

From Wednesday evening to Thursday evening, Oct. 31, intense to torrential rainfall may persist in Batanes and Babuyan Islands.

Heavy to intense rains may be experienced in Calamian Islands and Occidental Mindoro, while moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Romblon, and Antique.

PAGASA warned that these rainy conditions could lead to flooding and landslides, particularly in areas identified as highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and those with significant antecedent rainfall.

The rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers due to localized thunderstorms.