The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Monday, Oct. 21 warned that Tropical Depression “Kristine” may cause significant rainfall and damaging winds to Luzon in the coming days.

PAGASA Weather Division Chief Jun Galang said in a press conference that most areas in Luzon, including Metro Manila, are likely to experience heavy rains and strong winds by Wednesday or Thursday, Oct. 23 or 24.

Kristine has a vast cloud band, which may lead to light to moderate rains in some parts of Visayas and Mindanao.

In the next 24 hours, moderate to intense rainfall may affect Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Quezon province.

The trough or extension of Kristine may also bring scattered rains and thunderstorms to Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Aurora, Mimaropa, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, and the rest of Visayas.

The rest of the country will experience isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.

PAGASA warned of possible flash floods and landslides throughout the archipelago.

Wind warnings

PAGASA said the highest tropical cyclone wind signal that may be hoisted during the passage of Kristine is Signal No. 4.

Galang said that PAGASA may also raise Signal No. 1 or 2 over Metro Manila.

As of Monday afternoon, Signal No. 1 is currently in effect over the southeastern portion of Isabela, Aurora, northern and eastern portions of Quezon, including Pollilo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, including Ticao and Burias Islands, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte, including Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands.

Forecast track

As of 5 p.m., the center of Kristine was located 760 kilometers east of Catarman, Northern Samar. 

The tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gusts of up to 70 kph and is moving westward at 15 kph.

PAGASA’s latest forecast shows that Kristine could make landfall in the northern part of Luzon between Thursday evening, Oct. 24, and Friday morning, Oct. 25. However, Galang said the tropical depression’s projected path could change as it approaches land.

PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando emphasized the uncertainty in Kristine's forecast track, saying the tropical depression’s direction and point of impact may shift before landfall. 

He added that there is a possibility of the cyclone making landfall over the eastern portions of Central Luzon or extreme northern Luzon.

Servando explained that tropical cyclones forming in the last quarter of the year often make landfall after developing in lower latitudes, usually east of Southern Luzon or Eastern Visayas.

He added that some of these tropical cyclones can reach super typhoon strength.

Currently, while it is likely that tropical depression Kristine will intensify into a typhoon before landfall, Galang said PAGASA is not ruling out the potential for it to develop into a super typhoon.