The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said the estimated palay production may decline in the third quarter, while corn output is expected to increase.
Based on the PSA’s latest production estimates for the July to September 2024 quarter palay production is expected to fall by 12 percent to 3.35 million metric tons from the3.8 million metric tons recorded in the same period of 2023.
The PSA’s new estimate is also lower compared to the earlier forecast of 3.39 million metric tons made in July 2024.
The lower palay output was due to the reduction in the area harvested, which is expected to drop by 14 percent to 796,280 hectares from 926,920 hectares last year.
However, yields per hectare may see a slight improvement, projected at 4.2 metric tons, up 2.4 percent from the previous year's 4.10 metric tons.
As of early September, approximately 39 percent of the updated harvest area, or 310,780 hectares, has already been harvested, yielding 1.31 million metric tons of palay.
Notably, of the remaining 485,500 hectares still to be harvested, 16.5 percent are at the reproductive stage, while 83.5 oercent are maturing.
In contrast, the corn sector showed a more optimistic outlook.
The estimated corn production for the same quarter is expected to rise by 2.4 percent to 2.526 million metric tons from last year's 2.47 million metric tons. However, this figure shows a slight decrease from July's estimated 2.533 million metric tons.
The corn harvest area is projected to decline slightly to 806,360 hectares from 822,400 hectares in 2023.
Encouragingly, the corn yield per hectare is expected to rise to 4.3 percent, to 3.13 metric tons, from the prior year’s figures.
As of September 1, 2024, 42.9 percent of the corn harvest area, equating to 346,230 hectares, has been harvested, resulting in an output of 1.07 million metric tons.
Among the remaining 460,140 hectares of standing corn, 11.4 percent are in the reproductive stage, while the majority, 88.6 percent, are maturing.
On Tuesday, the PSA also reported that rice and corn stocks continued to decline in September this year due to storm damage and lower global prices.
In September, rice stock levels dropped by 11.2 percent compared to the previous month, which recorded 1.87 million metric tons.
However, September stocks reached 1.66 million metric tons, reflecting a 6.8 percent increase from the previous year.
As for corn stocks, they totaled 625.12 thousand metric tons, marking a 22.1 percent decline compared to the same period in 2023.
Corn stocks also fell by 6.2 percent month-on-month, down from 666.48 thousand metric tons in the previous month.
Annually, corn stocks recorded declines of 47.8 percent from households and 19.9 percent from the commercial sector. (Derco Rosal)