By Derco Rosal

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that rice and corn stocks continued to decline in September this year due to storm damage and lower global prices. 

In September, rice stock levels dropped by 11.2 percent compared to the previous month, which recorded 1.87 million metric tons. 

However, September stocks reached 1.66 million metric tons, reflecting a 6.8 percent increase from the previous year. 

Annually, rice supplies from the National Food Authority (NFA) depositories surged by 196.7 percent, while supplies from the commercial sector rose by 16.4 percent. In contrast, household stocks decreased by 23.7 percent. 

Compared to August 2024, rice stocks in September fell by 17 percent in households and 9.8 percent in the commercial sector. Conversely, rice stock inventories from NFA depositories increased by 0.3 percent. 

In September, over half (63.3 percent) of the rice stocks originated from the commercial sector, with 27.6 percent from households and 9.1 percent from NFA depositories. 

As for corn stocks, they totaled 625.12 thousand metric tons, marking a 22.1 percent decline compared to the same period in 2023. 

Corn stocks also fell by 6.2 percent month-on-month, down from 666.48 thousand metric tons in the previous month. 

Annually, corn stocks recorded declines of 47.8 percent from households and 19.9 percent from the commercial sector. Compared to August 2024, corn stocks dropped by 8.6 percent in households and 6.1 percent in the commercial sector. 

Of September's total corn stock inventory, the majority (94.7 percent) came from the commercial sector, while the remaining 5.3 percent were sourced from households.

“Partly, [it] had to do with the recent storm/typhoon/storm damage,” Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC), said.

Ricafort also said that global rice prices have fallen to their lowest point in over two and a half years, while global corn prices are nearing four-year lows.

Ricafort further noted that older, more expensive rice stocks are being used up more quickly due to a reduced import tax of 15 percent since early July 2024 and decreasing global rice prices, with hopes of restocking rice and corn at lower costs.

He also took into account that although El Niño officially ended in midyear, its effects are still contributing to the depletion of supplies.

To recover from this, the economist indicated that the “onset of rains, with risk of La Niña later in 2024, could also help increase production and supplies that would also help boost inventories.”

This is alongside lower import tariffs aimed at boosting local supplies and lowering prices to help reduce overall inflation.