The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Tuesday, Jan. 9, said it is bracing for “one of warmest years” on record this 2024 due to the effects of El Niño.
“Patuloy pa din ang epekto ng El Niño (The effects of El Niño continue,” said Department of Science and Technology (DOST) - PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief and Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis as she shared the weather outlook for 2024 and some updates on El Niño interview in Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon.
“May possibility din na yung tinatawag nating warm or dry season months - March, April, May - it could be one of the warmest years on record natin (There's also a possibility that what we call the warm or dry season months - March, April, May - could be one of our warmest years on record),” Solis said.
“Historically, yung ating mga El Nino years yun din ang mga mas maiinit ang na naitatala natin (Historically, our El Niño years are also the ones where we record the hottest temperatures),” she explained.
“Ayon sa prediction ng PAGASA, maaring mas maiinit ang temperatura natin sa warm or dry season months (According to PAGASA's prediction, temperatures may be hotter during our warm or dry season months),” she added.
13 to 19 cyclones this year
As PAGASA monitors the effects of El Niño, Solis said that fewer cyclones may enter the country this year.
“May possible po na around 13 to 19 yung ating mga bagyo, may possible po na below average yung ating maginging bagyo sa ngayon (There is a possibility of around 13 to 19 typhoons, there is also a possibility that our typhoons may be below average at the moment),” she added.
Solis noted that due to the prevailing El Niño in the first to second quarter, there will be only around two to five typhoons expected. “And pagdating ng July to December, yung nakikita nating taya ng bilang ng bagyo is around 11 to 14 (And when we reach July to December, the estimated count of typhoons is around 11 to 14),” she explained.
PAGASA, on the other hand, noted that the rainy season is still expected to start during the second half of May to the first half of June.
El Niño preparations
Meanwhile, PAGASA urged the public to make the necessary preparations for El Niño such as water and electricity conservation and health measures for warmer temperatures.
The weather bureau noted that in Metro Manila, a “meteorological dry spell or drought” might be experienced as early as next month.
In some parts of the country such as the Cagayan Valley Region, PAGASA also noted that temperatures could exceed 40 degrees Celsius.
Solis noted that for three or five consecutive months, “around 21 percent to 60 percent yung possible na reduction sa tubig-ulan sa Metro Manila (there's a possible reduction in rainfall from around 21 percent to 60 percent in Metro Manila).”