PAGBABAGO
What awaits us in 2024? In the Chinese zodiac, it is the Year of the Wood Dragon and is expected to bring prosperity, authority and the good life. The dragon is one of the luckiest and powerful animals in the Chinese zodiac and those born in the Year “possess captivating demeanor, distinct personality and leadership abilities.” The year is expected to bring evolution and improvement – a perfect time for setting the foundation for long-term success.
Navigating the uncertainties of 2023 has been a “roller-coaster experience for many Filipinos. It has been pleasant and fulfilling in some areas but it had created considerable frustration in some cases because of difficulties encountered in doing business or dealing with some government agencies.
As in the past, futurists, strategists, and intelligence organizations engage in examining trends and making predictions for government and other policy institutions.
At the international level, the latest outbreak of the war in Gaza last Oct. 7, 2023 was actually a continuation of the conflict that started 16 years ago in December 2008. It is expected to last all of 2024 according to the spokesperson of the Israeli defense forces. The Israeli president had issued a call on leaders of all nations to work for the immediate release of 133 hostages. Recently, the Hamas-run health ministry reported that at least 5,087 had been killed since October and a total of 21,507 killed since the conflict began; 15,273 people had been injured. More than 700,00 Palestinians fled or were forced from their homes at gunpoint by the Israelis.
This war according to the BBC, is different from other wars, not just because of the enormity of the death toll because it came at a time when the “fault lines that divide the Middle East are rumbling, meaning that the social and political tensions in the region are becoming more pronounced and this could lead to greater instability. Since we have many OFWS in the Middle East, this trend is a cause for great concern.
In the case of the Russian-Ukraine war, Putin vowed to “intensify strikes on Ukraine.” The impact of the Ukraine war on the Asia-Pacific is greater than we think according to the Friedrich Ebert-Stiftung Academic Foundation. The prices of energy and food have increased and is expected to affect the security of 1.6 billion people around the world.
There are promising prospects for the Philippine economy but the challenges of climate change, food security and the West Philippine Sea may increase.
The Philippines is in the list of the top 20 countries projected to have the fastest growing economies in 2024. This is realizable if the projected inflation rate would go down from 54 percent in 2023 to 2.9 percent in 2024.
Most Filipinos agree with the Marcos administration’s approach to the West Philippine Sea (WPS) dispute according to a survey by OCTA Research. This is a dual approach which would continue holding diplomatic talks with China and at the same time carrying out military action which would require expanded naval patrols. The survey showed that 42 percent want more joint patrols with allied countries. A majority consider WPS a major concern as it affects the livelihood of our people especially the fisherfolk.
Climate change is a critical concern because 2024 will be hotter due to El Niño.
Disruption from artificial intelligence (AI) and health risks will also increase according to the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Intelligence Outlook which also predicts greater disinformation deepening polarization caused by migration concerns.
Which is why it is imperative to engage the general public in consultations about the future. ([email protected])