A survey conducted by the OCTA Research found that 13 personalities would have a statistical chance of winning if the May 2025 elections were held during the survey period, with ACT-CIS Party-list Rep. Erwin Tulfo having the highest chance.
“Most of them are either current or former members of the Senate. Among those with a statistical chance of winning, six are incumbent senators, and three are former senators,” OCTA said in its survey released on Tuesday, Jan. 2.
Tulfo had a significant lead, with 76 percent of adult Filipinos saying they would vote for him.
Senator Christopher "Bong" Go came in 2nd to 3rd place with a voting preference of 53 percent.
Former Senator Vicente "Tito" Sotto III has a voting preference of 48 percent at 2nd to 4th place, while Senator Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa is in 3rd to 5th place with a voting preference of 42 percent.
With 42 percent of the vote, Senator Imee Marcos placed 4th to 5th, while Senator Ramon "Bong" Revilla, who received 35 percent of the vote, placed 6th to 10th.
Sharing the 6th to 11th places were Senator Francis Tolentino (33 percent), former Manila City Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso (32 percent), and former Senator Panfilo Lacson (32 percent).
Senator Pia Cayetano came in 6th to 12th place with a 30 percent voting preference.
Meanwhile, former Senator Manny Pacquiao received 28 percent of the vote, placing him 7th to 12th, followed by former Vice President Jejomar Binay who received 25 percent of the vote, placing him 10th to 13th.
Completing the list is Senator Lito Lapid with 20 percent (12th to 22nd spot).
OCTA also noted that among the top 20 personalities with the highest voting preferences are Department of National Defense Secretary Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro (19 percent), former Senator Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan II (18 percent), Department of the Interior and Local Government Secretary Benjamin “Benhur” Abalos Jr. (18 percent), and TV personality Willie Revillame (18 percent).
Physician Willie “Doc Willie” Ong (18 percent) and former Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo were also close behind (17 percent).
The Fourth Quarter 2023 “Tugon ng Masa” survey was fielded from Dec. 10 to 14 through face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adult respondents nationwide.
It has a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level, with subnational estimates for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao at a ±6 percent margin of error.