“Moderate" El Niño is currently prevailing in the tropical Pacific, but it may become "strong" by the end of 2023, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Wednesday, Sept. 27.
There is more than 73 percent possibility for the El Niño to become strong in October to December, PAGASA-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Liza Solis said in a Climate Outlook Forum.
Solis added that the "peak" of El Niño will be felt between November 2023 and January 2024.
El Niño is predicted to prevail until March to May 2024, with a 70 percent probability, while April to June 2024 will see increased chances of a "neutral condition" with 60 percent probability.
Solis said El Niño increases the likelihood of reduced rainfall in the coming months.
The "ridge" of the high-pressure area during the warm and dry season from February to May can also cause dry, high temperatures, and light winds. (Lizst Torres Abello)