The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday, Sept. 27 said four to seven tropical cyclones may affect the country until the end of the year.
Two to three tropical cyclones in October and one to two tropical cyclones each in November and December may be expected in the country, said PAGASA-Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) Assistant Weather Services Chief Ana Liza Solis in a climate outlook forum on Wednesday.
However, she pointed out that the frequency of tropical cyclones could decrease due to the occurrence of El Niño.
"Kung mayroon tayong El Niño ay nagkakaroon talaga ng pag-kaunti ng bagyo (If we have El Niño, there will really be decrease in the number of tropical cyclones)," said National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS) weather specialist Joey Figuracion.
"Kung may pagkaunti ng pagdami ng bagyo, gayundin naman ay kumakaunti 'yung pagdami ng nag-lalandfall (If there is a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones, so as the number of cyclones that make landfall)," he added.
Figuracion noted that due to ocean "warm fall" which shifts far east away from the country, the tropical cyclones do not form near the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR).
"Dahil malayo siya ay maaari siyang mag-recurve nang maaga, then hindi na siya nakakapasok sa ating area of responsibility," he said. (Lizst Torres Abello)