While former President Rodrigo Duterte remained a “prominent figure” among the possible candidates for the 2025 elections, the results of the latest survey conducted by PUBLiCUS Asia released on Saturday, Sept. 23, revealed a “shifting political landscape” in the voting predisposition in the senatorial race.

Based on the latest PAHAYAG 2023 Third Quarter survey, the “political landscape for the upcoming 2025 Midterm Elections in the Philippines has seen notable shifts and trends among senatorial candidates.”

In the survey conducted between Sept. 7 to 12, Duterte remained at the top spot with 47 percent voter support.

However, the survey noted this “represents a slight decrease” from the previous quarter at 51 percent.

Meanwhile, former vice-presidential candidate Doc Willie Ong and ACT-CIS Partylist Representative Erwin Tulfo closely trailed Duterte with 43 percent each. This, the survey noted, solidified their positions as “formidable contenders” in the upcoming elections.

Top 12 possible bets

Aside from Duterte, Ong, and Tulfo, the survey also revealed the possible “top 12” contenders in the 2025 senatorial race.

Among these include incumbent senators who are seeking reelection and continue to command substantial support led by Senator Christopher "Bong" Go with 38 percent followed by Senator Imelda “Imee” Marcos and Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa both at 36 percent.

In the survey, it was also noted that several former presidential and vice-presidential candidates remained in contention including former Senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson with 34 percent voter support; former Senate President Vicente Sotto at 33 percent; former Manila City Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso at 32 percent, and former Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo at 28 percent.

Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro who is one of the top-performing cabinet members in the same survey, has seen a “decline in voter support” --- dropping from 31 percent in Q2 to 25 percent in Q3.

This decline, the survey noted, is “particularly pronounced” in key regions such as the National Capital Region (NCR), North-Central Luzon Area (NCLA), South Luzon Area (SLA), and Mindanao,

Completing the roster is Senator Pia Cayetano in the 12th spot with 25 percent voter support.

Significant fluctuations

Based on the results of the survey, there were also “significant fluctuations” in various regions, particularly in Metro Manila where support for several candidates including Duterte, Tulfo, Go, Marcos, Lacson, and Domagoso declined.

For Robredo, the survey noted that her trust has “surged” nationwide --- especially increasing in NCR, NCLA, SLA, and Visayas while remaining “relatively low” in Mindanao.

Meanwhile, former Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan remained “statistically tied” with Cayetano with 24 percent support. The survey noted that this reflects the “competitive nature” of the senatorial race in 2025. 

The survey also included voter support for other notable figures like former Senator Manny Pacquiao with 23 percent; lawyer Chel Diokno with 22 percent; incumbent Senator Francis Tolentino with 21 percent; and Lucy Torres-Gomez, who experienced a “decline” in voting disposition from 31 percent to 22 percent in the Visayas region, has 20 percent.

Moreover, the survey noted that voter support for lawyer Harry Roque has “significantly declined” from 25 to 19 percent --- particularly in Visayas and Mindanao.

Likewise, the trust for Presidential Adviser on Poverty Alleviation Larry Gadon also “decreased” from 24 to 21 percent. The “notable drop” in voter support for Gadon was observed in NCR, decreasing from 27 to 14 percent.

PAHAYAG 2023 Third Quarter Survey (PQ3) is an independent and non-commissioned survey conducted by PUBLiCUS Asia Inc. which was conducted among 1,500 respondents across the country.