The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) projected that by December 2023, 46 percent of the country may suffer from a dry spell, while 43 percent may experience a dry condition.

In its climate outlook forum on Wednesday, Aug. 23, PAGASA said 39 provinces, mostly in Luzon, may suffer from dry spells by the end of December 2023, while 36 provinces, mostly in Visayas and Mindanao, may experience dry conditions.

However, by the end of February 2024, 48 percent of the country may experience drought (40 provinces, mostly in Luzon), while 40 percent may experience a dry spell (34 provinces, mostly in Visayas and Mindanao).

According to PAGASA, a dry spell is defined as three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall or two consecutive months of “way below-normal” rainfall, whereas a dry condition is defined as two consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall.

Meanwhile, drought is defined as a prolonged dry condition characterized by five consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall or three consecutive months of “way below-normal” rainfall.

PAGASA noted that there is a 50 to 70 percent chance of below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country from November to December.

Rainfall will be way below to below-normal in most parts of the country, with the exception of some provinces in Davao Region and Caraga, where it will be near normal.

By January to February 2024, there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

PAGASA on Wednesday said the El Niño climate phenomenon has strengthened from a “weak” to “moderate” event, which means a longer and more severe impact on the country in the coming months.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, resulting in below-average rainfall, causing dry spells and droughts in some areas of the country.