OF SUBSTANCE AND SPIRIT

Five years ago, Yubal Noah Harari wrote his third book 21 Lessons for the 21st Century after his much-acclaimed Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind and Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. One of the 21 lessons he offered to the world is categorized under technological challenge, and this is about work. He argued that “when you grow up, you might not have a job.”

Perhaps this is yet to resonate in the Philippines, its imperative may not yet be felt today.

For our labor market dynamics seems to have improved since the pandemic when unemployment averaged a high of 10.3 percent in 2020 while underemployment was also at its highest at 16.2 percent. From January 2023, both indicators have moderated from 4.8 percent and 14.1 percent to 4.5 percent and 12 percent respectively. What is not obvious of course is that the quality of jobs has deteriorated given the large proportion of our labor force would like additional jobs or more hours of work. 

Their income is hardly enough given the still-elevated rates of inflation. This is the brewing challenge.

The Philippine Statistics Authority itself documented that between 2018 and 2021, real family income had declined, giving rise to lower real family spending. If spending drops, the standard of living will similarly retreat. By next year, we should see whether this trend would continue, a trend that could have recently driven the Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) to start thinking and finally launching what it described as “Labor and Employment Plan” (LEP). If jobs are scarce, the opportunity to earn and cover one’s expenses will be limited.

Supposed to be aligned with the Eight-Point Socio-Economic Agenda and the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028, the Plan aims to reduce unemployment and address underemployment with better jobs. A tripartite conference will be convened in September to roll out the scheme. The broadsheets reported that the Plan is anchored on three priorities: one, to maximize productive, remunerative, freely chosen, quality and sustainable job opportunities; two, ensure respect for all rights at work, international commitments and human rights; and three, build inclusive social protection for all. 

But the broadsheets and the Philippine News Agency both reported that the scheme targets over three million jobs coinciding with the planned implementation of the Department of Public Works and Highways’ (DPWH) 70,000 big and small infrastructure projects under the “Build Better More” program. 

We are concerned that if the jobs would be provided under the umbrella of the BBM program, they would be in the same basic construction sector that has been absorbing manual and unskilled labor for many years. And for the very few, engineering and design opportunities may crop up here and there. We need to drill down the Plan to ensure that it is adapted to this new wave of AI and digitalization which is ultimately unavoidable.

We are also concerned that if this is indeed the case, the prospects are not too bright. President Bongbong Marcos has challenged the various agencies of government to address serious cases of underspending. DOLE admitted that it’s one of those underspending departments because it “needed to conduct a thorough profiling of the intended beneficiaries of programs like the one intended for displaced workers to ensure that the funds are given to eligible recipients.”

Fine, but when do they expect to complete this very basic database management? And documentation for audit purposes?

If this is what the Plan is all about, it would be difficult to imagine how it could maximize the quality of jobs when labor will be deployed to where it has been assigned all these years. If we could have a larger share of technical people like architects, engineers, IT and communication experts, because our schools and universities are producing more of them, and the demand for them is also rising, perhaps there is a chance of a favorable shift to more quality jobs. 

It is difficult to figure out the credibility of the second objective in the face of the Philippine government’s decision in March 2018 to delist the country from the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) Rome Statute. This was precipitated by the Court’s announcement of a preliminary examination into the alleged thousands of drug-related extra-judicial killings. Our delayed exit from the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force is another reason for doubting our seriousness in adhering to our international commitments.

Finally, building an inclusive social protection for all is quite a mouthful. The pandemic exposed us all to the health hazard, but there was very little protection we received from the authorities. On the other hand, the new Anti-Terror Act can demonize anybody and the people in charge could very well get away with it because its flexibility is enormous. We are now being taught how not to think aloud.

For Harari, none of us would know what the job market will look like say, in 2050. Civil society has come to accept that machine learning and robotics will change virtually every aspect of work, “from producing yogurt to teaching yoga.” On this basis, it is possible that billions of people could become economically redundant even as automation may continue to generate new jobs and prosperity.

In the short term, it is easy to accept that AI and robotics have little chance of completely eliminating entire industries that require human intervention, simultaneous use of wide-ranging skills and dealing with so-called unforeseen events. While doctors may be ultimately replaced by AI doctors using unlimited algorithms to deal with hosts of illnesses, more human doctors and human lab assistants will be required to conduct basic research and develop new medicines or surgical procedures. Human pilots may be replaced by drones but we still need people to do maintenance, remote control, data analysis and cybersecurity.

Harari admitted that humans cannot be complacent, that enough jobs will be generated to compensate for any job losses. The challenge is to decide what to do to prevent jobs being lost, what to do to create more new jobs, and what to do, if despite our best efforts, job losses exceed job creation. The Philippines’ LEP should thus be crafted.

In all of these, what is important is to realize that protecting jobs is secondary to protecting labor. Government should rationalize its operations to maximize resources and help people especially those who lost their jobs, channel them somewhere else like putting up child care and homes for the elderlies. Community spirit is critical, it could make or unmake individuals with specific issues.

In that context, losing our jobs to AI and algorithms could therefore be a blessing. The curse is when we lose control over our lives. If the authority, as Harari put it, shifts from humans to algorithms, the next is destroying “any remaining faith in the liberal story and open the way to the rise of digital dictatorship.”