Recent reports coming out from the business media and the business community reveal that our country is “on track to achieving upper-middle income status by 2025, despite the World Bank’s recent increase in the threshold.” Finance Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno stood by this statement, confident of the country’s ability to meet the World Bank’s new minimum gross national income (GNI) per capita threshold of $4,466 to be recognized as an upper-middle income economy.
When asked about the feasibility of reaching this new threshold, Diokno responded in the affirmative, stating “yes, by the end 2025…that’s our goal.” His optimism is reinforced by statements from various economic managers, which have been echoed in the media.
It is important to note that last June 30, 2023, the World Bank revised its classification threshold, expanding the range of GNI per capita necessary for a country to be classified as an upper-middle income economy. For fiscal year 2024, the new range now spans from $4,466 to $13,845, representing an increase from the previous band of $4,256 to $13,205.
In 2022, the Philippines experienced an 11.2 percent increase in GNI per capita, rising from $3,550 to $3,950 compared to the previous year. GNI per capita — used to assess economic well-being and living standards — is a “measure of the average earning per person in a country, representing the total income divided by the population.”
According to business reports, the Covid-19 crisis “caused a significant decline in the Philippines' per capita income in 2020, plummeting from $3,640 in 2019.” The country recovered, “bouncing back from a low point of $3,350 during the peak of the pandemic to $3,550 in 2021.” Furthermore, it managed to surpass the pre-pandemic level by the end of last year.
Despite our country’s progress in increasing GNI per capita after the pandemic, it has been surpassed by its neighboring country, Vietnam. As of the end of 2022, Vietnam has already outpaced the Philippines with a GNI per capita of $4,010. Prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, “the Philippines held a 13 percent lead over Vietnam in terms of per capita income, with $3,770 compared to Vietnam's $3,340.”
When questioned about Vietnam’s lead, Diokno emphasized the importance of assessing the performance of President Marcos’ administration in raising the income of Filipinos once his tenure concludes.
“Every administration has a distinct start and finish. Consequently, it is imperative to hold the Marcos administration accountable for its actions or inactions throughout its tenure,” Diokno said.
Our path toward achieving upper-middle income status is paved by the administration's Philippine Development Plan for 2023-2028, which, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), is a “plan for deep economic and social transformation to reinvigorate job creation and accelerate poverty reduction by steering the economy back on a high-growth path.” The President, early this year, has already signed an executive order approving and adopting this plan.
Undoubtedly, skeptics abound when it comes to the timeline and feasibility of this plan to elevate our country’s status to upper-middle income within two years. In fact, their glaring pessimism is more felt especially as our neighbors have already zoomed ahead, leaving us behind. Though they may have their point, we must remember that economic progress is not a race but a journey for the 113 million Filipinos. We will get there, sooner rather than later. But it takes all of us to make this journey; to turn this dream into a reality.